JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/24 | 1/6/2025

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/6/24

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2:24

If the Mariners think Castillo is awesome and they’re totally happy paying him his contract (reasonable I think), what does a trade of him even look like? A pitcher just as good plus more?

Ben Clemens

2:24

a top hitting prospect

probably with an ETA of right now

Brian

2:25

While I agree on the pitchcom I have another, perhaps more subtle way to game the clock - Francisco Alvarez really likes to throw behind runners. I think that part of that is he likes to throw but it also gives the pitcher an extra moment without breaking any rules

Ben Clemens

2:25

Totally

2:26

I think that this one is less implicit and more accepted

back picks last year felt to me, anecdotally, much more likely than they used to be to get lollipopped in there

Henry Dodger

2:26

How much of Pete Alonso's lack of a robust market this year is due to his poor platform year and how much is it that projection systems really don't like him?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Those things are inextricably linked, but I guess what I'd say is this

2:27

I think that the projection system consensus was lower on Alonso than fans/baseball execs already coming into 2024

I think it largely came from the fact that he broke out late and projection systems are skeptical of career arcs like that

2:28

but I think that this bad platform year both lowered the projections further, to like 'red flag, hold up the deal' levels, and also cooled off the 'we're signing him for the dingers and autographs' crowd a bit

2:29

I have no clue what he's gonna do. I think I wrote a lot in my blurb about how I do model-based projecting and there aren't a lot of cases like Alonso's so I basically told the model to shut up and went up by a lot from its estiamte

wheelhouse

2:29

Is Goldschmidt the worst signing of the offseason so far? Brian Cashman has made this mistake a million times before and shows no sign of slowing, unlike Paul

Ben Clemens

2:29

oh man, I don't think so at all

now, if they're committed to giving him 600 PA's even if he's toast, yes

but I think that it's a decent bet at a good price

2:30

like, dude won MVP recently enough, and players have late-career spike years often enough, that I think this is a good risk to be taking

if he's a disaster and you're willing to cut him, then it's no biggie

I guarantee you you can get a blah-level 1B at the trade deadline for peanuts

Alby

2:31

Are you worried about Rutschman at all or do you think his slump was injury-related?

Ben Clemens

2:31

So like... I don't think a 100/0 view of this is correct

I'm definitely much less worried than I'd otherwise be b/c there's a clear connection to his injury and his decline

and I'm also not particularly worried about the various soft denials that it was injury-related, whatever, that's what you're supposed to say if you're the team

2:32

but I think sticking your head in the sand is wrong too

certainly, my base case for him has shifted down slightly

Colton

2:33

Jumping in a bit late so not sure if this has been answered, but what do you make of all the Casas conjecture? Breslow has said multiple times that he's not available and isn't being shopped but people still seem to think the opposite.

Ben Clemens

2:33

speaking of a player who the M's supposedly didn't want for Castillo!

Brian

2:33

Now that you have been doing the free agent predictions for a few years, have you considered doing a lessons learned recap? Things you got right/wrong, things the crowd got right/wrong, what has changed over time, etc?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I did one of these last year

I'm going to do a midway 'here's how our predictions have done' check-in this week, as well

2:34

and yeah, expect more articles of me thinking about my own process. it's a nice way to fill content voids in the offseason and people seem to enjoy reading them

Ham Fighter

2:34

You closer to Steamer (119 wRC+) or ZiPS (108 OPS+) for Jackson Chourio next year?

Ben Clemens

2:34

Steamer

Jays realist

2:34

In the event Vladdy cant reach a long term deal with Toronto? what are the chances the FO just keeps him the whole year in hopes that one good year will save their jobs?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I think that question is basically impossible to answer without knowing their record in July

Sam

2:35

Given the Orioles seem completely disinterested in spending big money, how long is it before teams start sniffing around Rutschman and/or Henderson? Not saying they should trade them but with their prospect depth, I could see Baltimore at least considering it.

Gunnar Henderson

2:35

O/U on years until I get traded? I want my money and they arent giving it to me

Ben Clemens

2:35

I don't think they can afford to do it

even if they just keep him until FA

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