JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/23

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Guest

3:27

Kenji is the best! I love a scientific method-based, data driven approach to cooking. Really helps me understand why certain arcane methods are so favored when attempting to make tasty food.

Ben Clemens

3:27

100%

3:28

I made his chocolate chip cookies recently and a)they were good b)the recipe describes in great detail how you can adjust every single component of their cooking to make them taste more like how you want it, i.e. chewier/crisper, taller/wider, etc

Nick

3:29

Any thoughts on the Nationals' offseason? They're clearly hamstrung money-wise with the ownership situation but they've sprinkled some cash around the holes in the roster

Ben Clemens

3:29

Priority one is to sell the team, since it's going to happen

They weren't turning themselves into contenders with a single offseason, and I totally get not wanting to sign new long-term deals while simultaneously trying to sell the team

3:30

Given those constraints, I like the idea of getting some interesting fringey guys. Candelario, Garrett, Hill, Harris, and Dom Smith all seem like good flyers to me

John

3:31

Hi Ben, I think I asked this one other time but didn't really understand the answer. Why do we use 9 innings as the denominator for HR rate when we've moved towards batters faced as the denominator for every other pitcher outcome (Ks, BBs mainly)?

Ben Clemens

3:31

No idea, I think it's bad

Fat Matt

3:31

One time I made a pizza at work with summer sausage, pickled eggs, cheese curds and jalapenos. It was delicious. But we all also had to use the bathroom within an hour

Ben Clemens

3:31

lol cheese curds on a pizza, what a world we live in

Appa Yip Yip

3:32

It's probably safe to say the Jays are done taking big swings, and their remaining business is just a 4th OF/bench bat and maybe a reliever if it's a clear upgrade. Assuming that, is the team that enters 2023 better than the one that finished 2022?

Ben Clemens

3:32

so this is basically: -Stripling, Gurriel, Hernandez

3:33

+Varsho, Swanson, Kiermaier, Bassitt

plus of course whatever they would have gotten out of Moreno in the majors

Uh.... I think they're marginally better, but not by a ton. Teoscar is really underrated imo

3:34

I just have more faith in Bassitt sustaining acceptable 3rd starter numbers than Stripling

and I think that overwhelms the offensive downgrade

Phil

3:34

From a historical perspective, how would you rank Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer?

Ben Clemens

3:35

Man, this is a tough one

For me, it's Kershaw > Verlander = Scherzer

they're the best three of this generation, of course

3:36

Effectively Wild has covered the striking similarity between Scherzer's and Verlander's careers

Kershaw is a weird case b/c of his playoff record, but his peak was just ludicrous, and then he's been an above average pitcher for another six years after everyone wrote him off

Dan

3:37

Who is a prospect that you're most interested to see how they perform this year?

Ben Clemens

3:37

Miguel Vargas

I've been high on him for years, every time I build a predictive model he comes up as exceptional

I think that the Dodgers giving him a fair shake is awesome, and I'd love to see him rake

John Mozeliak

3:38

Any pitchers you think the Cardinals should be targeting? Seems like what they really need is top-of-rotation upside and I'm not sure any trade candidates -- even expensive ones like Pablo Lopez -- really fit the bill.

Ben Clemens

3:38

Yeah.... if I'm them, I think I might just chill out and wait for a huge ace to come on the market or for next year

3:39

Maybe explore an extension with Montgomery?

I'm with you, I think a top-tier guy would move the needle but given the way their rotation sets up, getting a solid but not great pitcher is just less of an improvement than it is for most team

teams*

Cen Blemens

3:39

If you're Brian Cashman, what do you do in LF? Stick with the Cabrera/Hicks combo until the Reynolds situation resolves or another option comes up at the deadline?

Ben Clemens

3:39

I'd stick it out. Cabrera might be the long-term answer!