JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/23

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Ben Clemens

3:54

The cooking tip hits just keep coming in this chat

Fish sauce is wildly underrated

but yeah, a little goes a long way

don't use it like you would a condiment or you'll taste nothing else

Phil

3:55

re: Kershaw and recency bias, i respectfully disagree. No doubt Kershaw had the best 5-year peak of the three (possibly the best 5-year peak of all time). But In terms of career accomplishments, cases can be made for any of them. Kershaw has 3 Cy Young awards. So does Verlander. So does Scherzer. Kershaw has 7 Top 5 Cy Young finishes. Verlander has 9. Scherzer has 9. Kershaw has pitched ~2,600 innings. Verlander has pitched ~3,100. Scherzer ~2,700. Kershaw has a significantly better ERA+.

Ben Clemens

3:55

I think it's reasonable to take the average of career and peak - royalties to Jay Jaffe pending

and that peak puts Kershaw over the top for me

they're all great, though

Bob OdenKirk

3:55

Yeah for me personally, a lot of the game’s mechanics clicked in more fully in my brain after I stomped some AI players a few times without having to worry about managing physical cards and pieces and resource trackers, etc.

Ben Clemens

3:55

this makes sense to me

3:56

my friend bought some special organizing boards that also helped a lot. They had slight indents so that the cubes wouldn't fly around

3:57

not having to worry about keeping everything just so was nice

J luhnow

3:57

Do you think the MLB just juiced the balls for Judge lat year or Pujols too?

Ben Clemens

3:57

I don't

I read the Insider article about it, and I mean, maybe!

But I just don't buy it

Never ascribe to malice what is better explained by incompetence, imo

3:58

it seems like the baseball manufacturing and storage stuff is just bad

Eric Vealy

3:58

Does Chad Green's pre-injury drop in velo last year scare you?

Ben Clemens

3:58

it probably should hvae, but to be honest I didn't really notice until it was too late

Matt

3:58

Do you think that one of the reasons the Braves went after Sean Murphy so hard is that they are anticipating more SB attempts due to the rule changes? Murphy is just light years better than D'Arnaud or Contreras in this regard.

Ben Clemens

3:58

Eh.... I'm sure it helps, but he's also light years ahead of them just overall

3:59

There's a reason that he's been in our last two Top 50 Trade Value lists, and that there's never been much disagreement about it

Matt

3:59

I think the Orioles should aim to have multiple lefty starters in their rotation, given how much that park has changed and made it difficult to hit for power as a righty bat. Would you build this rotation out the same way, or am I overreacting to one year of data?

Ben Clemens

3:59

I think for choice, I'd agree with you, but that it's easier said than done

Like, maybe Quintana would have made sense this year? Or Rodon

But it's more important to get good pitchers imo

4:00

handedness is more of a tiebreaker, even in an extreme park like the re-designed Camden

Jeffrey

4:00

Thoughts on Colin Barber as a legitimate replacement to McCormick in CF for the Astros?

Ben Clemens

4:01

I dunno, I like Meyers and McCormick, and know very little about Barber, so I'm gonna say stick with the proven commodities for now and give Barber another year to see what's cooking

J

4:01

Presumably home run rate is usually per 9 and not per batter faced because you end up with really low numbers that are hard to relate to. It would only work if you normalize it like e.g. ERA+

Ben Clemens

4:01

Reasonable argument. I think a trickier thing is that small differences matter more

so like, 6% walk rate 7% walk rate, w/e

2% HR rate 3% HR rate, that hurts!

Tiger Fan

4:01

Which of the following players do you think will return to 2021 form...Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Wander Franco?

Ben Clemens

4:02

In order: Soto, Vlad, Tatis, Franco, Acuna

I didn't put a ton of thought into it, those are my flash impressions

Birds

4:02

Is Trout ever going to the playoffs again? Astros still excellent, Mariners good now, Texas all in, AL East grabbing lots of WC spots...

Ben Clemens

4:02

Boy, it's not looking great

It does kinda feel like it's 2023 or bust

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