JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 10/25/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 10/25/21

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Appa Yip Yip

2:19

How well do you think Marcus Semien ages? It's fair to say this was a career year, but it's all pull side power with swing and miss. I have concerns.

Ben Clemens

2:20

I'm a bit worried. I can share that every time I sent out preliminary free agent rankings for feedback, people said I was too low on Semien

I ended up bowing to the wisdom of crowds and bumping him up to a lofty spot, but I'm quite scared about how maxed out he already is

dezre

2:20

Hey Ben! Any good baseball book recommendations, preferably those that focus on the business side or applied stats usage? I've read The Only Rule Is It Has To Work, Lords of the Realm, The Process, etc. Love narrative baseball stuff, but want more of a numbers dive. Thank you

Ben Clemens

2:21

The Book is great for applied stats usage. I really found Dollar Sign on the Muscle enjoyable for nuts and bolts on scouting. Aside from that, I liked Curveball by Jim Albert, but I'm more of a narrative baseball book reader tbh

Oh, and Jeff Zimmerman's yearly 'The Process' is awesome

if you want to look at it from the fantasy side of things

Mark

2:21

Board games huh? Ever played the Dune board game? It's a classic. Played a session the week before the Dune movie to put us in the mood.

Ben Clemens

2:22

I have, and it's great

I hvaen't seen Dune yet, though I'm excited to

I'm just always worried these books I love will get ruined by people trying to translate their vision of the book, which inevitably clashes with mine, into a visual story

Guest

2:22

Is there any hope that Shogo Akiyama can be an MLB regular-caliber player?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Yeesh. I sadly think that ship has sailed. With his kind of power, you need to be either an incredible defender or have an incredible eye

I thikn there's still hope that his eye is good -- he did walk 14% of the time in 2020 -- but between injuries and aging, I feel like he'd need that kind of walk rate just to be an average hitter

And that's not gonna do it, he can't really play centerfield either

2:25

Or at least, talent evaluators definitely don't think he can do it sustainable

sustainably*

maybe he'll surprise me, but I doubt it

Giant Gonzales

2:25

As a longtime fan of the GBBO, I'm sheepishly admit that I had no idea about the Great British Menu, which if you haven't watched, you should definitely check out. Random seasons are on prime but imho, it blows GBBO out of the water.

Ben Clemens

2:25

Never heard of it, I'll definitely hceck it out

Wed Theeler

2:25

I'm starting to think Giuseppe is one of the best bakers in Europe. Assuming he and Jurgen go all the way: 1. Who is the annual "favorite who chokes in the finale", and 2. Who is the dark horse that gets the third spot?

Ben Clemens

2:25

I think Jurgen will choke at some point, though he's probably my favorite character

And I am very high on Chigs

2:26

He has the biggest chance to go completely ham and win it all of the non-Jurgen-and-Giuseppe crowd

Hugh Duffy

2:26

How much of this Braves outfield do you think they'll try to retain this offseason? Non-tendering Duvall was a cost-cutting move. Do they do it again? Soler and Rosario are both free agents. Do they offer them a contract? Do they pick up Joc Pederson's option? Do they assume that Ozuna will be able to make it back sometime next year? Can Pache or Waters hit major league pitching? So many questions. Any answers?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I think they will: go to arb with Duvall, let the rest hit free agency, and end up resigning Rosario

Giant Gonzales

2:27

Also side note, the Red Sox apple watch was under Farrell, and Cora was with the Astros during trash can gate but got suspended for that while he was the Red Sox manager FYI

Ben Clemens

2:27

Useful! Somehow I thought it was in 2018

Appa Yip Yip

2:27

One of my favourite offseason pastimes is getting irrationally attached to players posted from the KBO and NPB. Seiya Suzuki. Do you know anything about this dude?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I know very little, but I know that we are hopefully gonna get some projections for him

Also, he seems great, has absolutely crushed it in NPB

Guest

2:28

Michael Girsch was a GM in my Strat-o-matic league and I will confirm he does do stuff as we made a trade during his tenure.

Ben Clemens

2:28

SEE????

Chip

2:28

What do you think Michael Fulmer's role is in '22? He'll be 2+ years from TJ

Ben Clemens

2:29

My guess is they'll try him as a starter but be willing to pull the plug reasonably quickly if he's not working out there

If you don't think his changeup plays (it did pre-TJ, hasn't since), he's a two-pitch guy

Jacob

2:29

What Narrative baseball books do you like?

Ben Clemens

2:30

Tons of stuff by Roger Angell, The Arm by Jeff Passan was very well done, there's obviously Moneyball.... I think that The Only Rule Is It Has to Work fits there too

Big Data Baseball by Travis Sawchik was really good

2:31

Though amusingly the lessons the Pirates learned all stopped working at once soon thereafter

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