JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 10/3/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 10/3/22

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Broken Bat

2:23

Thanks for what you do. I have enjoyed the chats all year. In your opinion, is their an edge with the 2023 infielder rule that benefits either flyball hitters or guys that are more gab

Ben Clemens

2:24

Thanks! And hm, I think the biggest benefit is going to be lefties who are fly ball oriented but pull a ton of their ground contact

b/c that way, both sides of the shift rule (no short right field 2b, no 4 man outfield) come to bear

David

2:24

Do teams that expect to make a deep postseason run place a higher value on players because of those extra games in October? For example, would a 3-WAR player in the regular season potentially raise his production to about 3.5-WAR by playing enough postseason games?

Ben Clemens

2:25

That makes a lot of sense in theory. The way that teams are run these days, though, not many teams who don't have a shot at playing in the playoffs sign any free agents of note

2:26

Perusing last year's top 50 free agents, I guess the Tigers and Rangers are the two teams that broke that rule, and they were both making statements by spending, not trying to min/max optimize their WAR

Crone Zone

2:26

Would you rather have Michael Harris II on his extension or Tatis on his?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I really don't know what to think about Tatis these days

2:27

I'm not sold on Harris's offense just yet, so I think there are some interesting ones about him vs. other young players on extensions, but I tihnk the Tatis contract is becoming untouchable. It's especially hard to value from the outside b/c we don't have any information from Tatis himself. It's completely untradeable at this poin for example

Guest

2:27

Alt title: What we do in the Shadow (zone)

Ben Clemens

2:27

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-salvador-perez-does-in-the-shadow-zon...

Ya Gotta Believe

2:27

If you're the Mets do you want the Padres or Phillies in the WC?

Ben Clemens

2:27

Phillies

Kwanbelievable

2:27

Played Betrayal at House on the Hill for the first time over the weekend, and I was underwhelmed. Learning curve seemed super steep and maybe not worth the effort. If you've played, what are your thoughts on the game?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I've never played, but it seems like one of those games that gets a ton of credit b/c it's the first of its kind

But sometimes those games are conceptually neat but not so much in practice. Again, this is without having played it

Liz

2:28

What happens if one of Wednesday's games gets rained out? If it's eliminated teams and/or postseason seeding is all locked in by then will they just cancel it, or would they try to squeeze the game in regardless? how much do individual GMs/managers(?) get a say in this?

Ben Clemens

2:28

They'd cancel it

2:29

The 2016 Cubs only played 161, for example, b/c they had a game against the Pirates not get reschedule

No, I didn't have a season over with the fine print that all 162 games had to be played for the bet to count, why do you ask?

John B

2:30

Goldschmidt's terrible OAA which is dragging down his MVP case. He's been excellent this year, saving tons of errors with his glove - does OAA not pick that up!

Ben Clemens

2:31

I'm unsure how OAA handles scoops and the like. I'm skeptical that he's as bad of a defender as OAA thinks. That said, he has some shortcomings, like range and throwing arm

They're minimized at first, and I would generally regress his defense back to the mean, but I don't think you can just watch him, say 'eh he's good at catching errant throws', and run with that

fwiw I'd vote for him by a mile just on the general view that you should care less about defensive statistics in MVP voting

Appa Yip Yip

2:31

Betrayal at House on the hill can vary pretty wildly based on which haunting you get. Some of them are super fun, some of them less so. It also helps if you have one person dedicated to reading the cards in a spooky voice.

Real Name

2:31

I'm not Ben, but Horrified is a more streamlined "family horror" cooperative game that has similar mechanics without a betrayer and going into different rooms to learn separate rules part of the game.

Ben Clemens

2:32

Here are some excellent opinions from people more informed than me

brad penny for your thoughts

2:32

waino was mostly ok/good this year but as you mentioned, pretty terrible in sept. so...does he come back next year?

Ben Clemens

2:33

Now THIS is a great question. I think he rides off into the sunset as long as they at least win the WC series

MTF

2:33

Instead of Voit, would you give consideration to Josie at first and opening a spot on the infield for Arias? Maybe even move Rosario to third, and let Arias play short...

Ben Clemens

2:33

I would not, feels like a waste of a solid defender

JV

2:33

Does Darvish still start tomorrow? I would think they would hold him out to start Game 1?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I expect they'll hold him out

Finnegan's SSW

2:33

If you have any Hayden Wesneski/Scott Effross trade thoughts so far, insert them below

Ben Clemens

2:33

Good deal for both teams, bad luck that Effross got hurt

Guest

2:34

What does Dansby get paid? If you throw out his shortened rookie year and 2020 … 1/2 his career WAR has come this year. Is 5/125 reasonable or does he get PAID?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I think 5/125 is reasonable, I think he might get slightly more length

asnbrv

2:34

Has there been an attempt to justify the WARs position player/pitcher WAR distribution (fWAR's 57:43, rWAR's 59:41) other than "that's how teams use their money" recently? That was done a while ago and it always felt one of the more wonky part of WAR to me.

Ben Clemens

2:34

There hasn't but there probably should be

Liam

2:34

Interested in a BP article from a few weeks ago about factoring org player development tendencies into prospect rankings - the differences between the top and bottom are pretty obvious, but how would you go about separating, like, the 16th and 17th best player dev orgs?

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