JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/16/20

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Ben Clemens

2:32

But 3 and 1 are close, and I think 2 is the most likely by far

Appa Yip Yip

2:32

Pork is for suckers real men eat Longpig. The most dangerous game.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:32

What's the Thanksgiving cooking plan? WaPo has some excellent-looking smaller sheet pan recipes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/voraciously/thanksgiving-...
We're thinking of the roast chicken with potatoes and sprouts, some buns from whatever King Arthur recipe strikes our fancy, and pumpkin creme brulees for dessert.

Ben Clemens

2:33

I'm actually going to be on vacation (driving down to see some friends in SoCal), so I think we'll have to play it by ear

Big fan of sheet pan recipes in general

2:34

So even if I don't use these for Thanksgiving, I'll use them for something

The harissa turkey legs look awesome

Inaccessible Rail

2:34

Are we going to have to wait until the end of the off-season to see any free agent signings this year?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I don't know exactly how long, but I think that the majority of deals will be signed in 2021, and potentially even in February

2:35

Teams are just going to want more knowledge (not certainty b/c lol) about the likelihood and magnitude of attendance next year

Marko from Tropoja

2:35

I didn’t realize until last week that Kershaw was almost drafted by Detroit. Him, Verlander and Scherzer would’ve been the best top three of a rotation ever, right?

Ben Clemens

2:36

The rotation that springs to mind with a Big 3 is the 90's Braves

I'm surely missing some from history, but I feel like most storied rotations were more duos than trios

I think I'd take Verlander/Kershaw/Scherzer over Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, but that's close

Curtis

2:37

If the Mets were to sign all three aforementioned players...(i.e Big Splash) where does that vault them to in the NL? understanding other teams have chances to improve of course...

Ben Clemens

2:37

I'm always worried I'm going to forget someone, but I tihnk it would lodge them right in the middle of the tier just below the Dodgers

2:38

Right now Tier 1 is the Dodgers, and that second tier is the Padres and Braves, to me at least

I don't tihnk they'd get clear of that level even with all three, and I think they fall short if they only get 1

Gashouse Gorilla

2:38

Cubs and Red Sox both possible tankers/unload salary types. Any other against-the-grain teams?

Ben Clemens

2:39

The Jays might spend more than we expect, I think there's some risk that the Cardinals are actually about to tank and we just don't know yet

Adam

2:39

Suppose you could force any two CBA changes, one benefitting each side and roughly offsetting in their financial impact. What changes would you implement?

Ben Clemens

2:39

2:41

I think I would impose a revenue split that mirrors the average of the revenue split over the last 20 years after requiring full disclosure of team financial situations (this would be really tricky, but we're in a hypothetical world so bear with me)

It'd be NBA style where the share of the revenue that goes to players is fixed and trued up at year end

2:42

That's an owner-centric rule change, at least per their public comments on it, because it imposes cost certainty

If they have a huge down year in revenue, player salaries go down

2:43

That's obviously the biggest thing owners have mentioned as a negative in 2020, so let's fix that

On the other side, I'd shorten time to free agency. Given that the total amount of money spent on player salaries is fixed, this isn't going to have a net financial impact, but I think it gets the money to the players who a)merit it based on skill and b)actually derive more benefit from it

Daron

2:44

Which NL Central team is most likely to trade away a key contributor this offseason? Some possibilities that come to mind include Bryant, Hader, Bell, etc.

Ben Clemens

2:44

I have Cubs first, though I'm not really sure Bryant has any value at his arb salary

Then Brewers with Hader, though it'd be a retooling kind of trade, not rebuilding

Then Pirates, then Cards, then Reds

Chris

2:44

Smyly 11 million? Whoa

David

2:44

Holy crap, just showed up and seeing the Braves way overpaid Smyly. Thats nuts.

Ben Clemens

2:45

Definitely higher than our projection, but I see the fit for Atlanta in particular... they need to sign probalby two SP's in free agency and they already missed Stroman, Gausman, Ray

Maybe they're out on Walker

Gotta get someone

2:46

I think accepting the QO made sense for both Gausman and Stroman, and it's also funny that it has definitely put pitching-needy teams under pressure

Inaccessible Rail

2:50

Braves have done well with their FA signings last few years. Don't know if this is good scouting, analytics, or dumb luck, but maybe they know something about Smyly that we don't.

Ben Clemens

2:50

Well, yes and no

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