JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/21

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Darth NateR

2:12

Do you think with contracts like Semien's it would be less weird if they front loaded the deal? Same years, same total money, but most of the money coming at the front?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Not really.... that matters slightly from an NPV standpoint, and it could definitely matter from an internal team accounting standpoint, I just don't think it fits the competitive window of the team

5 Run Homer

2:13

What do you think Texas gets out of Gray? Four years and over $50 mil is a lot, seems like they have high hopes

Ben Clemens

2:13

I would not have gone that high, but I think that teams as a whole are pretty high on Gray's chances of improving when freed from Colorado

2:15

If I were a team, I'd prefer to sign cheaper deals than 4/56 for guys I'm hoping to make better via some as-yet not enacted change

Like, he's a perfectly nice pitcher, and I don't think this deal is going to come back and haunt the Rangers or anything.

2:16

But I have him and Steven Matz in a similar tier, and I'd definitely take Matz and save $12 million if I had to pick

It's a small criticism, I just think that there were better places to shop if you wanted to be in the 'pitchers we think we can improve' tier

BigBagBerk

2:16

Who do you think is the starting SS for the Astros next year?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Jeremy Pena

Hungry (Multi-colored) Eyes

2:17

Hi Ben! Do you think the Mets make a trade including some of Dom Smith, JD Davis, McNeil this offseason? Seems to be a bit of a bottleneck now with Canha and Escobar. Thanks.

Ben Clemens

2:17

Yeah, I think that one of Dom or J.D. is likely on the way out for a return that will make Mets fans sad

2:18

I just don't think you'll get much for a 1B with a career 104 wRC+ or a positionless bat who only had 211 PA last year

Thomas

2:18

what do you think about a Taylor Rogers for Dominic Smith trade

Ben Clemens

2:18

I think this would make realllly little sense for the Twins

2:19

Where would they put Smith? Surely not left field, and Sano seems like a far better choice at first

2:20

Smith is still young and controllable, but I just don't thikn that 'young and controllable' is going to appeal to teams that much when it's a first baseman coming off of a bad year

AndrewUK

2:20

What’s the Blue Jays’ next move? Surely they can’t fit Ray into their budget as well as Gausman long term, but they need another starter and a 3B ideally, don’t you think?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I think they'll probably sign another starter, likely a back-of-the-rotation type

2:21

I think that's totally reasonable given how good the top of their rotation is now

I'm a Gausman skeptic but still, it's a very solid top three

Third base, corner outfield; I'd be happy with either of those spots

2:22

I don't mind Santiago Espinal as much as most people seem to, and I am lower on Grichuk as an everyday starter

I think that most third base upgrades don't move the needle relative to Espinal. If we're talking Matt Chapman, sure, but otherwise I'd rather focus on pitching and RF

2:23

Is Seager down to Rangers and Dodgers?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I honestly don't know

If you're not one of the scoops reporters, it's all reading tea leaves that have gotten out, and it's hard to figure out what teams wnat to get out, what agents want to get out, and what just got out naturally