JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/21

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Ben Clemens

2:38

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-castellanos-rumors-seven-e...

Indeed, it's many

Guest

2:39

Approx value of the opt out Scherzer got after year 2?

Ben Clemens

2:39

My option value calculator isn't going to think it's worth very much

Because single-year opt outs are kinda capped

It really likes the ones that are, say, three years into an eight-year deal or whatever

2:40

I wish I had a better answer for you than that, but I don't know, mayyyyybe $5 million dollars or something? It's hard to imagine a ton of value when he's going to be getting $43 million in that last year

Guest

2:40

Are you more surprised by the size of the M. Semien deal or the A. Garcia deal?

Ben Clemens

2:40

Hmm... Semien by a hair

2:41

I had Avi really high up on our list and yet was way low, so that one definitely counts

2:42

Hm okay I changed my mind, I think Avi's surprises me more

Not because I don't think he could be good value at that price, but because I didn't expect four years

2:43

I now feel silly for dropping him to one year in my predictions, though. I had him at 2/32 for almost the entire time and pulled back in the last few hours before publishing

Appa Yip Yip

2:43

Gausman and Ray are both two pitch pitchers with short track records who have and will sign long contracts. Who do you prefer?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I like Ray a bit more, because I just can't wrap my head around how Gausman will keep getting away with it

(throwing so many splitters without a pitch that breaks gloveside)

But I was definitely the low man on Gausman and it seems like teams are higher on him than I was by a good deal

2:45

Just, something about that contract sets off my spider senses

Archuleta

2:45

Think Red Sox owner LeBron James makes Stroman a pitch to come to Boston? They’re buds and both repped by the same agency (Klutch). Mets may be out of the running now…

Ben Clemens

2:45

I do not... LeBron doesn't seem like he's an active owner of the Red Sox, haha

Like, I thikn he would tell Stroman to get the most money he can

And play somewhere he wants to play

Archuleta

2:46

Where do the Dodgers turn to with Scherzer gone?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I don't think the Scherzer back to LA thing was ever a remotely done deal, just seemed like he'd get to go wherever he wanted before the Mets threw on an extra year

2:47

That said, I think they turn to Jansen, Seager, and Kershaw

Jaysosmash

2:47

Can the Cubs be competitive in 2022 like ownership stated? If so, what starting pitcher FA will allow them to change momentum?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I mean.... look, they COULD

If they signed a ton of players

I do not think that it's particularly likely

2:48

But hey, sign Carlos Correa and Nick Castellanos, bring back Anthony Rizzo, add two pitchers, pretty soon you've got a stew going

5 Run Homer

2:49

The Dodgers really have to make sure they keep Kershaw now, right? What are the chances he heads somewhere else?

Ben Clemens

2:49

To me, yes

Again, I don't have anything unique here

2:50

I just think that what Andrew Friedman has said so far and what LA's rotation looks like both foreshadow another year

At the very least

Carlos Rodon

2:50

Am I planning to wait out a few months of lockout to hope my arm can pass a physical or is the total lack of news regarding where I'm going a sign that no one wants me?

Ben Clemens

2:50

Probably more the first than the second

2:51

Rodon is represented by Boras, and it wouldn't shock me if he were in the 'second-tier-client-Boras-doesn't-do-well-by' category

Boras has clearly been pretty busy of late with other signing

signings*

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