JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/30/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/30/20

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, and welcome to the chat.

2:01

I'm probably going to keep it short-ish and sweet-ish today, because I don't anticipate there being a ton to talk about

2:02

Unless you have some good recipes to share, or games to talk about.

Let's kick things off with non-tender/trade type stuff

Quincy Adams Wagstaff

2:02

What might the Nationals have to give up to get Bryant?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I don't know if Bryant will get non-tendered, but I don't think it will be a complete shock if it happens. He probably shouldn't be -- 20 million dollars isn't out of the question for someone of his skill level

2:04

But the worries are kind of there

2:05

If he signs for his 18.6mm arb estimate, it's hard to see a team seeing much surplus value there. Maybe two FV 45 prospects, that kind of range? He's a big name, but there are serious questions about his being able to sustain his previous performance level and he's only a year from free agency anyway

Angels

2:05

Brandon Marsh, David Fletcher, Patrick Sandoval, and Luis Rengifo for Blake Snell. Who says no?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I actually think both teams say no? The Rays don't need more fringe-average middle infielders, much as I love Fletcher

2:07

They're in a constant roster crunch as it is, so adding 4 players who need to be on the 40-man seems like a weird move for them

I guess net 3, but still

And meanwhile, the Angels probably shouldn't be trading bulk for a single pitcher, they are kind of thin as it is

2:08

More Snell stuff:

Rufus T. Firefly

2:08

Should the Yankees non-tender Gary Sanchez?

Otis B. Driftwood

2:08

I'd love to see the Yankees and Rays hook up. it would be risky for both teams, but with the Rays needing some catching, a package centered around Sanchez plus a couple of other pieces for Snell might just be great -- or terrible -- for both teams.

Ben Clemens

2:08

Love the juxtaposition here

2:09

As Craig Edwards wrote about, Sanchez doesn't have much trade value

Not to the point where I think he'll get non-tendered, but he's not a valuable chip at the moment

Snell is, so I don't really see this happening

RMR

2:10

Is Atlanta going to let Austin Riley run with 3B this year or put a vet in front of him? I'm kind of encouraged by the plate discipline changes he made last year.

Ben Clemens

2:11

I think they're gonna give him some rope. I've been very encouraged by Riley, to be honest. His overall offensive production wasn't miles better this year, but the building blocks look a lot more stable

I think you can feel fine projecting him for more power, and probably a better BABIP

2:13

I don't have a great feel for his defense at third, but if you think he's abysmal, that's not great

If you think he's average, as OAA does, much more encouraging

Guest

2:13

What comp do you put on Riley? Does Casty with more power work?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I'm not really a comparison guy, I just feel like I make bad ones too often

Riley feels like a deluxe Jedd Gyorko to me but I can't say why I think that

Guest

2:14

If your team needs a catcher, would you prefer to sign Yadier Molina to a 1-year, 10MM deal, Brian McCann for a 2-year, 30MM deal, or JT Realmuto for a 5-year, 95MM deal?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I think I'd go Realmuto, then Yadi, then McCann

2/30 for McCann is a LOT

2:15

And to be clear, I thikn we're talking about James McCann here, right?

Ryan

2:15

Suppose the Blue Jays sign Springer, the Yankees bring back LeMahieu, the Red Sox sign Bauer, and the Rays trade away Snell. How does the AL East shake out next year?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Probably NYY is at the top, and then a big mass of TOR/TB/BOS fight for scraps

RMR

2:16

Assuming no setbacks, is Clevinger ready for OD 2022?

Ben Clemens

2:16

That's my guess -- maybe a start or two later than that

RMR

2:16

Are the Royals going to give Franchy a real shot to see what he can do this year (assuming health)?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Would have felt better about this before they just signed Michael A Taylor

Guest

2:17

Do you think the Reds' experience with Akiyama's (lack of) offense this year will make them reluctant to seriously consider Kim as a SS option, on the grounds that stats from Asia aren't a great indication of MLB success?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Nah, I don't think it's super relevant. Different league, completely different player, and plenty of KBO players have come over and been roughly what we thought they'd be. The Reds know that as well as any other team, regardless of what they rolled on this one player this one year.

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