JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/7/22

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Cal

2:12

Much debate in Orioles fandom about how much the team will be leaning into FA this season after comments Elias made earlier this season. What do you see as the likeliest GA scenario for the Os this off-season - playing mostly in trades? Toe-dipping/playing at the FA margins, surprising and going all in? And then what's one surprise move you could see them making?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I think they're most likely to be involved in the market for pitching, and perhaps for veteran 1b/DH tpyes

types*

2:13

They could reasonably look to add a big ticket shortstop, but if I were them I'd still be hoping to have Gunnar Henderson end up there, and Jorge Mateo is a perfectly nice player anyway

I know they have some pitching prospects coming up but you can never have enough pitching, and getting some of the mid-tier guys this year would make a lot of sense to me

Lindsey

2:14

Great work on the top 50! Can you explain how Joc gets that much less than Benny with only a (.2 WAR difference) and Benny coming off a career high BABIP/ career low slugging %?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Defensive and baserunning value, plus I think people just see Joc as a platoon bat and Benintendi as more flexible. I am not high on Benintendi or Joc, to be honest, if I were running a team and looking for outfield depth I'd probably look elsewhere

Jax

2:14

The best breakout candidate in this free agent class is ____?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Kodai Senga I guess

2:16

If he doesn't count, Tyler Anderson

Fried

2:16

What are the chances Braves can keep Max Fried beyond next year with their current projected payroll?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I think it depends heavily on what they do at shortstop this offseason

My guess is that they'll let Swanson walk, which makes Fried make more sense

9761014

2:17

how do teams handle recency bias in cases like valuing Rodon. This was his career high in starts. So while he did have an amazing year, he only got a 2 year guarantee last year. And the shoulder concerns haven't gone away completely right? I don't really want my team signing him for 5 years - I worry he'll be on the shelf a good amount of that

Ben Clemens

2:17

It's extremely difficult, particularly for pitchers. Hitter performance is stickier, and health is easier to assume

2:18

A pitcher really can change by quite a bit from one year to the next, and Rodon seems to have done so. I trust his last two years much more as an objective measure of talent than the past. I saw him as the last guy off the bench in the 2020 playoffs and thought he was washed up, and he looks totally different now

2:19

I'd give Rodon a five year guarantee for mid-20s money and feel just fine about it. You're getting a discount if he repeats his recent form, so the discount for recency is already baked in, at least in my opinion

Phil Houseman

2:19

Matt Carpenter

Ben Clemens

2:19

Concisely said, my friend

2:20

Carpenter, Quintana, and Cueto are the biggest wild cards of the group, imo

Jack

2:21

Is Bogaerts' OAA surge this year a fluke given his historical track record at SS? Also, how will the market value his defense because of that?

Ben Clemens

2:21

Yeah, defensive metrics remain noisy in single-year samples

2:22

I don't think anyone looking to sign Bogaerts thinks he's suddenly great defensively. That said, you're not signing him for a Gold Glove. Similarly, I think people looking at Correa believe he's a good defender despite his down year by metrics

duvb

2:23

Will the twins try to convert duran back to a starter, or is he locked into the bullpen at this point?

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think he's gonna be in the bullpen at this point

Jax

2:23

Any teams that go into tear down mode this off-season a la A's last year?

Ben Clemens

2:23

The A;s

2:24

Aside from them.... I don't see any obvious candidates. I feel like a lot of the teams that are going to tear down just have already

i read fangraphs

2:24

I get why writers are uncomfortable with awards voting being used for bonuses in contracts, but surely it is reasonable to have some kind of bonus based on performance to reward players who do incredibly well and protect teams from albatrosses from people who flop? Buxton, for example, would rather have performance metrics be used instead of things like playing time that his employers ultimately have control over and can game. Would a better solution be baking arbitration into more contracts?

Ben Clemens

2:24

It's a really good question

2:25

I think that contracts like Buxton's are really good for players and teams, because they allocate risk fairly

It's weird because a lot of things you might care about are prohibited by the CBA, but awards aren't

2:26

I do think that having a larger award voting pool would make it less of a problem. With 90 voters instead of 30 I'd feel better about things

Angela

2:26

Doesn't banning the shift help power guys *more* than contact hitters? Traditionally power guys get shifted on the most so if their BABIP now goes up wouldn't that take away a some of the competitive advantage of the high contact guy if a .220 slug first hitter is now hitting .250/.260?

Ben Clemens

2:27

Great question! No idea, but it's something I have been thinking about since the shift rules changed. My best answer is basically 'it depends'. There are some high-contact guys who get shifted against, they'll likely benefit a ton. There are some sluggers who just don't hit many grounders; teams shift against them b/c why not, but they're not hitting many grounders, it's just that they're hitting basically none oppo

2:28

It's going to be really contextual, and I lean that it'll help power hitters slightly more, but if you group hitters into high-contact and low-contact, it's not like their BABIP has moved significantly differently during the past 5 y ears

Liz

2:28

Which teams are going to be most aggressive on catchers? You had three in the top-50, do you think any of them get an inflated contract due to competition or is that already factored into your projection?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I was very aggressive on this last year in relation to Yan Gomes

He was the only catcher of note on the market, so I thought he'd just get a wild offer relative to 'fair'

he extremely did not, he got 2/13 with a club option for more

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