JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/2/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/2/24

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

I don't have a ton of baseball-y stuff to talk about today, though I'm hoping that changes in a week's time or so when winter meetings heat up

but let's just get right into it and maybe get some grab bag topics in too

Doug

2:01

Do you think the Snell signing may make Sasaki less likely to go to Dodgers given they have enough rotation depth/talent to easily send him down if he struggles?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Eh... on the margin, yes. But 'oh the Dodgers definitely have enough starting pitching' has never been a good bet

I expect them to go six man rotation, I expect them to deal with a ton of injuries because they always do, there will be innings for him even if he struggles

Bob Loblaw, Esq.

2:03

Thoughts on the Boyd signing? Are the Cubs looking to flip him?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I don't think that signing someone hoping to flip them makes a ton of sense, particularly for a team like the Cubs with playoff aspirations. I do think that they're trying to get out in front of the market in much teh same way the Mets did with Montas

They need innings, and they probably didn't want to be hunting for them in January or February

That said, the price tag is not nothing for a guy who was available for free last year. I think I would have looked elsewhere, personally, though I'm not wildly confident in that view

jaygray007

2:04

It seems like pitching is at least moderately more expensive than we thought it was going to be. Do you anticipate this meaning that any sort of mlb-ready cost-controlled pitching could bring back more in trades than maybe we're used to?

Ben Clemens

2:05

One thing that remains to be seen is whether it's pitching or all free agents

The first few deals have been coming in above my estimates and the crowd as well

2:06

It's interesting, I spent a long time trying to trim my estimates down to even lower than they ended up. I have some forcing functions in the background that try to limit the overall amount of spending per win, so that I don't get too caught up in comps and market research and end up with a projection that is way off of what you'd expect from prior years

and that function kept telling me to cut estimates based on what we saw in the past few years. I ended up mostly ignoring it and coming in pretty far above what it would suggest. Guess I should have ignored it even more

2:07

I don't think it'll affect the trade market all that much because pitchers were already very valuable in trade, I think that'll just continue

Idiotic Failson

2:07

I'm sure you've seen the 'Yanks are topping out at $550mm for Soto and he already has several $600mm offers in hand' report by now. Do you buy it, and will the Yankees regret (lol) letting Soto go to the Red Sox (for example) for $600mm?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I don't buy it

2:08

Like I'm sure someone said that to a reporter, or something similar

but I doubt it is set in stone or even the current situation on the ground

like maybe they offered 10/550? but this feels like a deal they aren't going to lose for money's sake

Andre Thee Giant

2:08

Chaim Bloom's 2021-23 drafts were amazing high-ceiling talent grabs followed by strong development. He won't be there when the Red Sox ascend, but do you think the success they'll likely have will soon get him another job at the top of an org? Gracias.

Ben Clemens

2:08

I do! Maybe, I dunno, the Cardinals? :)

Joe

2:08

2025 Cardinals - one last wholehearted try for Mozeliak, or a year for Bloom to start enacting a retool? Players wise thinking mostly if Arenado and Sonny Gray stay with the Club.

Ben Clemens

2:09

I am leaning more towards the retool. You don't bring in Chaim Bloom to stick with the same old plan of trading for major league producers and whatnot

2:10

I'm not sure what that means for Arenado, it sure feels like he wants out but it feels like a tricky trade. Gray, on the other hand: I think he'll be gone if they're retooling because he's on a short deal at a reasonable price

that's the kind of trade package that every team is looking for

Thank you for the chat!

2:10

Do all (most) players have agents? Even the guys making minimum, Quad A, etc.?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Oh yeah

Appa Yip Yip

2:10

Is it harder to pitch Aaron Judge up because in order to get the ball high enough you have to throw what is normally a waste pitch and that is just weird to do on purpose?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Yes

Just like it's easier to pitch Altuve up

on the other hand, it's a lot easier to attack Judge low for basically the same reason

and he gets too many strikes called on him low in the zone because umpires have the same issue

Def not Chris Getz

2:11

Im playing a game of chicken with teams on Garrett Crochet. Am I smart for waiting for the big SP and Soto to go off the board before I deal my ace or am I just limiting my options if the Dodgers/Red Sox/Orioles/etc sign pitchers in free agency instead?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I am generally a fan of setting a price and waiting to either have it hit or for someone to get desperate before changing tactics

there isn't enough pitching to go around, particularly for teams who aren't dropping 150 million on a free agent, so I think the market will remain robust no matter where the top guys sign

Bencle Mens

2:12

Let me start by saying I do not want a salary cap. BUT is there a way to inspire non-Dodger teams to get creative with their contract offers as well? Is it only the Dodgers' desire to flout the luxury tax that inspires them?

Ben Clemens

2:12

The Nationals have been doing this for more than a decade

2:13

the A's offered Marcus Semien the most insulting contract of all time but in a goofily structured way

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