JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/6/2021

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Ben Clemens

2:15

You know, I haven't played Ticket to Ride in quite a while, but I always liked it

2:16

Acquire is a cool game that is conceptually *kind* of similar to Ticket to Ride, and I think it's really cool that it's from the 1950's or something

Clank and Wingspan scratch similar itches to various parts of Ticket to Ride

2:16

Are you a Dominion guy? Are you excited for the new expansion coming out in January?

Ben Clemens

2:16

I don't play that much Dominion

2:17

Not because I don't think it's a good game, just b/c I played a lot maybe 10 years ago and have had my fill. I do like their commitment to new expansions though

Marjinwalker

2:18

Cubs signing Stroman is really strange, no? If you are going to spend money on FA, why the fire sale last trading deadline? Why get rid of Darvish for very little?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Yeah, it's definitely a strange one

2:21

On the other hand, winning some more games is nice, and they had a TON of payroll room

If Stroman is great and they compete earlier than expected, awesome. If he's great and they are bad, they could try to trade him (probably for good value).

2:22

And what else were they spending the money on? More bars in Wrigleyville?

Bob

2:22

What's a realistic expectation for Nootbaar? could he be a quality regular/leadoff man, or is he destined to be a fourth OFer/Quad A guy?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I think that he's held back by the Cardinals having a solid outfield already

I definitely think quality regular is in range, and he's already a fourth outfielder

Guest

2:23

Is there any kind of trade market for Mike Moustakas?

Ben Clemens

2:23

Yeah, the kind that involves the Reds taking most of the money and then not getting much in return anyway

2:25

Moustakas with less power is not an enticing trade c hip

They get to their value differently, but I think I'd rather have Jonathan Villar than Moustakas even if I were going to stick them both at third

And Villar isn't getting nearly 2/32 this offseason

Jon G

2:26

Sorta confused as to why people are confused that the Cubs signed Stroman. Hoyer has talked repeatedly about the bare bones tanking strategy not really being something the Cubs think is advantageous anymore given how prevalent it is. As long as the long-term risk isn't present, why not sign guys when you have the money?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'm with you

Good baseball players -- they're fun to have on your team

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:26

The modal take on the Wander Franco deal is that it's a win-win for player and team in terms of security for the former and surplus value for the latter. This glosses over the fact that part of the reason the deal came to fruition, or at least on terms as team-friendly as they did, was the service time manipulation that the Rays engaged in. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Yeah, I think that both things can be true

I find the Rays keeping Franco down mere days past the projected Super 2 deadline to be galling

2:27

It was very clearly a move motivated by a desire to save money in the future, not at all related to trying to put the best team available on the field

That said, I don't think I'd find his deal to be unfair if it was buying out 4 years of arb + 2 of minimum instead of the actual 3/3 split

2:28

So on net, I'm okay with it, but I don't like the precedent their move sets

Marko from Tropoja

2:28

The Scherzer contract is atrocious in and of itself, but it potentially sets up the Mets for a messy payroll situation in 2023 and 2024. Assuming deGrom opts out after 2022, he would be well within reason to seek 4/200 relative to what Scherzer just got. How would the Mets navigate paying approximately $90 million to just two players?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I, too, hate when my team signs one of the best pitchers in baseball

2:29

Steve Cohen spends 150 million dollars on art, I think he can probably swing this. Baseball isn't a surplus value game, it's a wins game. I tihnk it is objectively silly to call the Scherzer contract 'atrocious' for the Mets

Appa Yip Yip

2:29

Re: two pitch pitchers, aren't most starters essentially two pitch pitchers and the third pitch is to deal with opposite handed batters? So they throw fastball x to righties and fastball y to lefties. If their second pitch is good enough against both, does it really matter?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I researched this!

And uh, basically no?

I really thought that was the case

But if you look at the population of, say, fastball/curveball/change guys

2:30

Most of them are two-pitch pitchers to their dominant hand, and 3-pitch pitchers to their weak hand

Sure, you use the offspeed way more against opposite-handed pitchers, but almost all of those guys still throw their other secondary pitch at least 10% of the time to lefties

Mike Hawk

2:31

Change to lefties?

Ben Clemens

2:31

Yeah change to lefties, but also usually a decent amount of breaking pitches there. I wanted to write about this specifically! That Gausman was more like a regular three-pitch pitcher than you think b/c his best secondary works against both hands

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