JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/13/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/13/23

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mike

2:36

My son skiied (sp?) at Revelstoke and loved it. Induction stoves are getting better and better and cheaper. Always cook at a lower temp with cast iron. Um, why can't we just have ties and no extra innings?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I'd love ties

I mean, not love them

But love the novelty once in a while

11 innings, then a tie, no ghost runners, bam

cool

1

Sharp

2:37

Like him or not, I'm expecting a good season out of Marcell Ozuna. He was coming off a major injury last season. He hit the ball really well the last month of the season. Looked like his old self. Every projection system has him above average with the bat.

Ben Clemens

2:37

I'm not particularly bought in, but that doesn't solve their LF problem anyway, the Braves are not very interested in playing him out there and he has a slot in the lineup as DH

2:38

I don't think there is a worse outfielder on their roster than Ozuna, so I think if he's good enough to play, it'll mostly be at DH

AA

2:38

Which is more likely to regress in 2023: Strider or Harris?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Oof, this is a tough one. I think I'll go Harris, despite thinking he's also more likely to find another gear

Lonnie

2:39

How many years of Yu Darvish's 6 year contract are the Padres expecting to have a useful starting pitcher? I assume it's not 6, but it has to be more than 2.

Ben Clemens

2:39

yeah like, 4?

depends what useful means

It would hardly surprise me to see him still be a useful 5th starter at 42

Matt Damon

2:40

MATT. DAMON.

Colton

2:40

Is there any personal guidelines you follow for projecting a guy's jump from NPB to MLB in their first year?

Ben Clemens

2:40

Yeah, I discount hitter projections from ZiPS and Steamer and generally accept pitching projections

I'm aware that they've done more work on it than I have, but that just helps keep my mind at ease about not getting too ahead of myself on rookies

Sharp

2:41

Is Giancarlo Stanton a Hall of Famer. He'll almost certainly get to 500 HR.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I don't think he is, but if he had hit 60 homers in a season ever, I think he would be

Pete

2:41

Oakland bright spot: they are the only professional team in Oakland. Some fans actually do enjoy going to a game and not watching on TV so if they don’t move, fix the stadium situation, or get new owners that didn’t alienate the fan base they no longer have to compete with the Raiders and Warriors for the live attendance part of fandom. Some teams can never have that to their advantage.

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah, solid point. Oakland has great fans. Even their minor league soccer team has good spuport

Sharp

2:42

Speaking of old-timers, Eric Sogard is suiting up for Czech Republic in the WBC

Red Kingdom

2:42

How about those CHIIIIEEEEEFS!

Ben Clemens

2:42

I watch a lot of football (I won my dynasty fantasy league this year, everyone bask in my presence, etc) and the NFL is lucky that that game was fun

2:43

between the disastrous CIN/KC officiating and the injury farce in SF/PHI, they couldn't afford another clunker. If Mahomes hadn't come back after rolling his ankle, hoo boy

carlo

2:43

Do you think Thairo Estrada is the everyday 2B for the Giants or does he move around in the outfield? Kapler talked about him getting looks in CF, but between Slater and Yastrzemski I don't see him getting much time there and the corner spots are already full of guys who shouldn't be there in the first place.

Ben Clemens

2:43

I don't really know why he'd get CF run unless one of those two guys is hurt

I agree that Slater/Yaz makes for a pretty solid CF platoon

2:44

Maybe if Slater needs a day off and a righty is on the mound?

er, a lefty, sorry

Pete

2:44

The A’s-Rays 2019 wild card game attendance was 54,000.

Ben Clemens

2:44

Yeah Oakland fans show up

hebrew

2:44

re: Oneil Cruz.

His numbers went up at the end of the season because the Pirates stopped letting him face lefties

Ben Clemens

2:44

I mean.... that seems like a good plan!

Kingdome

2:44

Are Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly underrated? Thanks.

Ben Clemens

2:44

Yeah, but not extremely so

2:45

I think that they're widely considered to be solid but not excellent, and that feels pretty close to the mark for me

Tom

2:45

Most Yankees fans would probably sign up for Anthony Volpe slashing .257/.310/.451 with 24 HR as a 4 WAR second baseman by age 25...which is exactly what Gleyber Torres put up last year, in another "down" year (albeit a retracement from 2020-21). So why is there such an axe to grind in trading Torres, besides team control years? My personal thought is Torres has the build/range to move to 3b to make room for Volpe, and replace Donaldson after '23.

Ben Clemens

2:45

I don't think the team shares that view, they seem pretty content to keep him and let him play nearly every day, which is what he deserves given his performance

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