JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

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Ben Clemens

1:59

Hey everyone, and welcome to the chat. There's a lot of baseball going on, even if you ignore the Astros drama.

2:00

Also, we can talk presidents -- though to keep politics out of it, let's limit to Presidents from before WW2. That way you can be assured of my least informed and most ridiculous takes.

And with that, let's go.

Roast Turkey Stearnes

2:00

We know about the Astros, Red Sox and (maybe) Yankees running sign-stealing schemes so far. How many teams do you think do it in some (borderline or illegal) way, and how much of the anger at the Astros is based on them seemingly have simply done it better than everyone else?

Ben Clemens

2:00

I think almost every team is doing *something*, though way more along the lines of the Red Sox 'try to learn signs, then teach the batters the signs sow hen they get to second it works.'

2:01

I think the reason there's been so much issue with the Astros is a combination of 1) they went further in this scheme than most/all 2)they were successful doing it 3)they ruffled a lot of feathers across baseball over the past few years by consistently insisting they just did everything better than everyone else and had a secret sauce

When you're bragging about your methods and systems of optimizing baseball

2:02

And it turns out that some of it is just 'oh we stole signs'

People get annoyed

Jerome

2:02

Seems very unlikely at this point that Jorge Mateo makes A's roster. He's out of options and was given a 45 FV last year by Kiley and Eric, which means it's unlikely he would go thorugh waivers unclaimed. If you were the A's, would you trade him now to minimize the downside risk of their leverage decreasing (or him playing bad) as spring progresses, or o you hold, hope he plays well, thinking that his value probbaly wont decrease during spring?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think they have to hold onto him through Spring Training. I'm not saying he's likely to beat out Barreto or Kemp (or Neuse), but it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

2:04

And I think most teams will be happy to pick up someone like Mateo at the end of Spring Training, just as much as they would be at the start. I don't think they'd necessarily get a lot for him, but I don' see why the return would go down during ST unless he gets hurt.

tomerafan

2:04

Thoughts on the minor league pay increase? Article coming?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Yes indeed, Rian Watt is writint about it.

James

2:05

It feels like the electronic strike zone is inevitable, and coming sooner than I think a lot of us expected. Obviously there will be a lot of repercussions we can’t yet envision, but specifically, how do you think this will affect players on the far edges of framing? For instance, is Austin hedges going to be out of the league? Is Zack Collins a legitimate catcher?

Ben Clemens

2:05

Yeah it's going to be a really big deal. Austin Hedges with no framing is probably not a major leaguer.

I'm less sure about Collins, because it's not as though the only concerns around his catching were framing -- there's also the injury risk from the wear and tear, it's tough for some people to catch every day and not get beaten up.

2:06

Eric talked about this a decent amount in the podcast he did with Meg on the Top 120 list, but he's been bumping good-hit bad-receive catchers up the list a bit

CT

2:06

Am I crazy to think Mercado can hit .285 with 15 HRs and 30 SBs?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I would say you're optimistic if you think that it's his median outcome. That's around the average he's topped out at in the minors, and he hit 15 homers this year but if you look at his swing, it's not exactly a home run swing.

When I looked at estimating HR/FB rates based on distribution of exit velocity, he stacked up towards the bottom of the league.

2:09

He could get there via playing time, of course -- Steamer has him projected for 15 in 600 PA

vs. his 15 in 482 pa last year.

But they also have him at .256, soooo

Conley

2:09

On the pitcher/batter individual player stats, what do the abbreviations mean for each stat like for example is FA fastball?

Ben Clemens

2:09

So Pitch Info uses this classification:

2:10

FA=four-seam, FC = cutter, FS = splitter, SI=two-seam/sinker

And then the rest are kind of whta you think: CH= changeup, SL = slider, CU=curve

Brood550

2:10

Can Arraez duplicate last year's Average with more pop?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Can? sure. Is it anywhere near likely? I really don't think so. He's never really hit for much power, so the path to more extra base hits is via doubles, I think.

2:12

That said, I haven't done a deep dive on him, and if something changes in his swing to unlock power, then maybe? it's tough though b/c so much of his value comes from how long he keeps the ball in the zone, how rarely he whiffs

Gil

2:13

I saw that B-P seems to be pretty bullish on the Mets chances to win the division while Fangraph sides with the Nats. Who do you think takes the division? As a Mets fan, it feels like the team is betting mostly on the bullpen to improve (which was the same wish last year) and it seems like that has blown up in the team's face before.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I'm bullish on the Mets. We have them reallllllly close, to be fair, like 5 points of winning percentage close.

2:15

I think it kind of comes down to how you feel about the Nats' old-guy depth against the Mets' thin-ish roster.

Like if you think that Kendrick + Cabrera + Zimmerman are going to provide a ton of useful plate appearances

Then the Nats' depth really matters.

Ben Franklin

2:15

thanks for talking about framers today.....#respect.

See! You! Later!

2:16

Grade my fantasy team name: "Max Scher, Zer" (from Hamilton the musical)

Ben Clemens

2:16

I think I'd go with "Literally what I said was 'Yeah, Scher Zer'" from Super Troopers

but I like yours too

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