JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

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Matt

3:13

Buy Bell enough that the Pirates should keep him, or should he be Cherington's next trade chip?

Ben Clemens

3:13

Ugh. Probably trade?

3:14

Nah, you know what, keep

I don't think his profile is super valuable in trade generally

So unless someone bowls them over

I think they should keep him and hope he goes nova. The tools are there.

Alex

3:14

There are an increasing amount of teams that are on the record saying they asked the league to investigate the Astros, yet nothing transpired until Fiers came out. Do you know if anybody has Manfred why the league seemingly did nothing until that point?

Ben Clemens

3:15

I don't want to wildly speculate

BUT I STILL WILL

C'mon, they hoped it would go away

3:16

This story is SO BAD for baseball

I'm sure Manfred was just hoping nothing would come of it.

All these stories get traction because they come out in the media.

That's a big benefit of journalism. And not the 'hey look at this guy's new data' stuff I do here, but asking questions getting answers journalism.

Carlos Correa

3:17

Ok, you caught us. Alex Bregman was using a buzzer, but it was only to know when his Panera order was ready.

Ben Clemens

3:17

:)

Baby Yoda

3:17

Seems like Bregman is the biggest % user of the trashcanbang system and also one of the least apologetic (along with Correa's weird apologize-but-also-F-you). Do you think one Astro* takes most of the retaliation/public scorn or does it get spread around?

Ben Clemens

3:17

I think Bregman will take the most heat for it.

3:18

Both because it seems like he was using it on the highest percentage of his at-bats based on Tony Adams' data and because of his I-don't-want-to-be-here-and-screw-you-guys apology

3:19

I found Correa's apology to be honest, and I think I'd feel very conflicted were I in his spot. Maybe I'm biased, but I'm likely to give a pass to people who I think are tryin to reckon with it.

Fan

3:19

Do the astros break the record for most hit batters in 2020?

Ben Clemens

3:19

They shouldn't, because hitting batters is stupid.

3:20

It's caveman justice that has weirdly been grandfathered into modern society.

With real chances of serious harm.

But yeah, I think they will.

Brood550

3:20

Are you expecting a drop in production team wide for the Astros, without the aids they were using and the distraction the ongoing saga is causing?

Ben Clemens

3:20

This is an interesting question that's hard to work out from the actual data we have.

3:21

But some of the RotoGraphs guys have been discussing a more certain view

Which is that the Astros will likely see a big uptick in HBP (see above)

Which comes with an increase in injury risk

A reasonably serious increase in injury risk

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-got-ice-the-math-of-being-drilled/

Matt

3:22

What are the odds that Astros pitchers were also cheating in some way that won't be sustained once they leave the team? In other words, if Cole has a down season is it most likely a) random variance/injury b) he was cheating in Houston or c) his limited mortal mind can't handle the unfathomable pressure of pitching in THE BIG APPLE

Ben Clemens

3:22

Most likely? Gotta be a)

3:23

I'd even put c) ahead of b)

Though not in the words you used :)

But I am willing to believe that pitching with intense scrutiny all the time is tough for some people. I do not think Gerrit Cole is one of those people, but who knows?

That Guy

3:23

When civil justice gives the perception of failure, caveman justice is the only recourse left. Or that's the justification that'll be used I wager. Which is why it was so important MLB did this right the first time (and they clearly didn't)

Ben Clemens

3:24

Right, I agree with you that that is why it will happen. I don't think it should, but I worry that it will.

I'm not sure what MLB could have done around player suspensions, and to some extent I think their hands were tied.

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