JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/2/2026

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/2/2026

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Last week was transactions central. This week we'll still do transactions, but plenty of other assorted stuff too. Our projections are out, we're doing some fun overhauls under the hood, and honestly, there have been some neat deals in teh last week

Laurel and JJ Hardy

2:00

What's up with the Suarez deal?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey, good news! I wrote this deal up, and that article will be going live in the near future

LB

2:01

Where does Geno to the power-starved Reds rank among the most impactful FA signings under $100M this offseason?

Ben Clemens

2:01

It's a good one. I think the power-starved thing matters more b/c he's a good fit for their park than b/c being power-starved as a team is a huge problem or anything

offense is offense, but his offense profiles well in GABP

Generally speaking, late signings haven't done all that well, even on a $/WAR basis

2:02

Here's a writeup of that effect:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/presenting-further-research-on-when-free-a...

That said, I still like this deal. It's always risky to play for leftovers, but the Reds are at a spot in the win curve where it's particularly valuable to get a little bit better

2:03

And also, there might be a general effect that players who sign late are worse than advertised, but Suarez signed for MUCH less than we expected him to be available for. It's possible to get a bargain so big that the 'oh their projections were too high' fact just doesn't matter

Potato

2:03

You’re not really a social deduction game girlie, right? No point asking you if you’ve played ‘Blood on the Clocktower’?

Ben Clemens

2:03

no, i am too

i'm an every type of game kind of person, though I've never actually set aside enough time to play

one of my friends lives in a big old house and has had a few blood on the clocktower nights, it just never lines up with my schedule

Arraez

2:03

Man if Arraez was willing to abandon his current approach, I feel like he could be good again. But last year I watched him sacrifice literally everything just to cut his strikeout rate by a percentage point, so I’m not gonna hold my breath

Bog

2:03

Can Luis Arráez play second base?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Two very interesting, and very different, observations about Arraez

2:05

I don't know if he can play second, but like, I'm not optimistic

I haven't had a chance to read Jay's writeup yet, but man, weird fit for a team who employs Logan Webb

I need to let it bounce around in my head more, basically

As for his current approach, couldn't agree more. Maybe Vitello is a good preacher of that. Or maybe Raffy Devers, who has learned to whiff more and make thunderous contact

I do think that the park is a good fit for Arraez - if you can't hit homers, might as well play in a park where no one can

Greg

2:05

Which data set do you use for pitch by pitch run values? I.e. if I wanted to find what the run value of a 1-1 pitch in a specific AB between Roman Anthony and Paul Skenes last year (pitch was on the corner but was called a ball). Extra points if I can get a run value of the impact of that incorrect call catered to the specific context of that event.

Ben Clemens

2:07

I often make my own, but that's because this is my full-time job and I like making stuff. Baseball Savant offers a plenty good one on their site that will definitely get you as far as you want for this kind of question

so, here's a search of every pitch Skenes threw to Anthony last year:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&h...

2:08

Download the data (there's a little picture of a chain link over a spreadsheet) and there's a column called 'delta_pitcher_run_exp'. That's the change in run expectancy to the pitcher that results from this specific pitch

2:09

That specific pitch had a run expectancy change of -.044, for example. You'd have to find a 1-1 pitch that became a 1-2 pitch (you can look up anyone with the same base/out state here) to get the counterfactual. These values are adjusted for the base/out context, so run scoring, but not for the game context, so it treats up 6 in the 7th the same as down 1 in the first. That's a feature, in my opinion, not a bug

I AM RANDAL

2:10

HELLO OLD FRIEND

Ben Clemens

2:10

HEY THERE RANDAL, HOPE YOU FIND AN EMPLOYER WITH A POOL YOU CAN USE

2:11

NOTHING BETTER THAN LAPS IN THE POOL AND TILAPS ON THE GRILL AM I RITE

DFJ

2:11

With Arraez and Eldridge lurking, how limited are Devers' position player days?

Ben Clemens

2:11

mmmm.... I don't see much difference between him and Edlridge at first, and I don't have any read on what the team is going to do there

like, i don't think it's a value issue. it's a player comfort issue.

Dodgers Blue

2:12

Talk to me about the White Sox closer situation.... Two years back, I thought Leasure was being groomed. Last year, I thought Grant Taylor was being groomed. Now they go out and sign Seranthony! Who is going to be THE GUY? Is there a chance Taylor will see action as a starter now?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I dunno man. I think that I'm getting more and more open to the idea that they odn't want to give pre-arb guys saves

and that no teams do

b/c that boosts arb salaries

2:13

definitely a chance Taylor will get some starts, why would they not try if he's into it? And also, I just didn't like the Seranthony signing that much

Dodgers Blue

2:13

Matt Shaw for Peyton Tolle or Connelly Early. Who says no?

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