JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/20/24

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Ben Clemens

12:14

so it's less egg in my face if I'm wrong

Definitely a worry of mine

And hm, that's interesting. I wonder if it has to do with the way I model every level separately

12:15

I think that a line like Edwards's would have played better if my model thought he was doing it at a younger age in a lower level

Guest

12:15

What would your comments on Mark Vientos have been, if he'd been included in your list today? A lot of Mets fans are convinced that he'll never be able to hit. I know his contact rates are low, but they're also fairly similar to the contact rates for a lot of successful RH power hitters. His average EV and Hard-Hit rates are really good, and his AVG and plate discipline were good at AA/AAA.

Ben Clemens

12:17

yeah basically I'd say that it's hard to fake power numbers like his at Triple-A

generally speaking guys who hit THAT hard are at least up-and-down corner contributors

12:18

so thath's a really good fail case

12:19

Was hoping to see Ben Rice in your article today, any notes on him from your research for todays article?

Ben Clemens

12:19

I didn't get down to Ben Rice and while I think he's interesting, he's absolutely not the kind of guy that this methodology captures

12:20

he's old for his level and strikes out a lot. guys like that can pan out but it's usually because of phenomenal physical tools

since I'm aggregating across a lot of players, that kind of skillset does not stand out in my framework

that's not to say he won't make it, just that this method does not screen for guys like Rice

Greg

12:20

Who would you prefer between Bryan Woo and Hunter Brown in a Scoresheet League

Ben Clemens

12:20

I'd take Brown but I'd be fairly happy with either I think

I think they are both underrated

Guest

12:21

Is Matthew Liberatore a bust or can he still reach Just A Guy status?
Seems like him being a top 3 starter in a rotation is basically out of the question at this point

Ben Clemens

12:21

I think he's definitely in ragen for just a guy status

but yeah, the top level arm outcome looks unlikely at this point

12:22

pitchers reinvent themselves, Charlie Morton was extremely just a guy for a long time before he became great

but that's not predictable

Talfred

12:22

Are fans wishcasting when they say their team should "sell high" on a player? It seems to me that when a player has a flukey good year, other teams' front offices are aware that it's likely unsubstainable.

Ben Clemens

12:22

Basically yes

Doug

12:22

Any chance Bellinger’s AAV drops low enough on a long term deal that the Padres become an option?

Ben Clemens

12:22

I'd say no, to be honest

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:24

Hey Ben! I'm not sure how to readily calculate this, but which team's playoff chances would be most disproportionately improved by signing BOTH JorMont and Snell? Meaning, which team's net increase in playoff odds would be the largest, you think?

Kristen

12:26

Given their abject lack of depth, why did TEX sign Mahle who'll only be readynafter the AS-break vs,

Ben Clemens

12:26

Okay, two playoff odds questions at once

12:27

I think the second is because they thought they had enough above replacement level pitching that they could make the whole thing work early in the year

and that they really wanted the upside

12:28

As for the team that would most want two great pitchers

12:29

I think it's either the O's or a team in the NL Central

it's just teams in really cuspy situations basically

Pete

12:29

Speaking of Bellinger, with the Nationals’ ownership situation finally resolved, is there a better “We’re back” splash they could make short of making a run at Soto in a year?

Ben Clemens

12:29

Completely agreed, only, it's unclear what the Lerners taking the sale of the team off the market will do

Random Fact Generator

12:29

In the game that he hit the 1st of his 4 MLB HR, Charlie Manuel hit 5th in the Twins lineup. He was preceeded by Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and Harmon Killebrew. The leadoff hitter that day was Ted Uhlaender.

Ben Clemens

12:30

that is certainly a fact

RTJ

12:30

Insert Snell Question that is super interesting and you answer however you like

Ben Clemens

12:30

What does a one-year Blake Snell deal look like

I think 1/40

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