JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/20/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/20/24

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Danny

12:43

Is Heston Kjerstad gonna be as good as I think he is? I'm expecting All-Star level output in a year or two.

Ben Clemens

12:43

That's a really bold take

obviously the odds are against that

just b/c, eh, baseball is tough

CleGuy

12:43

what is more likely: Cleveland winning the AL Central, or the Tigers finishing ahead of Cleveland in the AL Central?

Ben Clemens

12:43

I think it's the tigers finishing ahead of the Guardians

just more ways for them to hit that

Colton

12:43

Have you looked into passivity in the zone much? I ask because a guy like Suwinski seems like a perfect candidate to have a huge jump if he just increases his zone swing %. His contact rates within the zone are roughly league average so I think majority of his strike out issues come from simply being too passive. I'm sure there's other guys in the league that have similar issues, but he really sticks out to me as someone who could really make an impact if he starts being more aggressive.

Ben Clemens

12:43

I have a few times but without any great takeaways

I think the Robert Orr Seager framework seems reasonable

nice and simple, which I always like

12:44

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/86572/the-crooked-inni...

bosoxforlife

12:44

Elly De La Cruz just sends me into apoplexy. I want him to be what he can be so much that I get depressed when I doubt if he ever will. Where do stand on his future?

Ben Clemens

12:44

I'm still very high on him, irresponsibly so I'd say

I am just a sucker for tooled up guys who have also produced

Pete

12:44

Suppose Trout wanted a trade and the Angels made this offer: any team can have him for just its 50th-best prospect, but it has to take on every cent of the remaining contract. Any takers with Trout’s injury history and physical decline?

Ben Clemens

12:44

it's a great question

I think that several teams would do it

but I do think that the contract is starting to weigh on his value now, which is a crazy thing to say

12:45

paying money is not a disaster

paying that much money for someone who might not play much could be

it's really the availability that makes this a question

Alex

12:45

Give me a reason to be optimistic about the Padres please

Ben Clemens

12:45

Tatis bounceback season is very much in play

HSK is a phenomenal defender who will shine playing shortstop

and maybe the bounces will go their way a year after they extsremely didn't

Rotation Cerebrus

12:45

Who do you think will put up the most WAR this season out of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert?

Ben Clemens

12:45

I'll take Castillo

12:46

but I do think it'll be close

Listerine

12:46

Thanks for the list of less-heralded prospects. I'm curious about the names who've had a taste of the pros (like V. Grissom, whom you mention) that your system is particularly high on.

Ben Clemens

12:46

it's VERY high on Grissom

I'd include him if it weren't breaking my self imposed rules

it thinks he's one of the most likely successes in the entire minors

and that's despite not knowing that he's already played in the bigs

sliptoad

12:46

re the 2025 yankee free agents q -- you don't think they'll pursue bregman? they'll have a hole at 2b they could move DJ to in order to free up 3b, and I would think bregman is at least a better buy than alonso would be

Ben Clemens

12:47

i could see Bregman, sure, but I think I'd prefer Alonso to Bregman at the likely costs, personally

guest

12:47

do you have any hope that giolito will be able to regain All-star form again?

Ben Clemens

12:47

I don't think it's likely, but I do think that a bounceback is

he is talented enough that just going somewhere new and hearing something from a different pitching coach is likely to help at least a little bit

Dylan Stein

12:47

Can the Marlins beat out the Phills this year with some sort of pitching aqustion

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