JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/21/23

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Ben Clemens

12:23

I was definitely too bought in on the visual evaluation and not enough on how well he was playing

Walla Walla Ron Washington

12:23

My impression is that Ben’s specialties are the cooking and board games components of baseball

Ben Clemens

12:23

Fair

Dave

12:23

I recently got into making fried rice and can't believe i didn't do this earlier. So easy and a great way to use up leftover veggies and meat from previous meals.

Ben Clemens

12:24

Seconded

Fried rice, or for me just sheet pan rice and veggies cooked in the oven, is one of my favorite lunches

Easy and delicious

roto

12:24

do you believe berrios rebounds back to his Twins days?

Ben Clemens

12:24

I do

Warning: Berrios is someone I considered as an answer for my 'who's a bust who you thought would be a star'

RTJ

12:25

I've been enjoying reading the articles about using certain statistics of season n to predict season n+1. With spring training arriving, I'm wondering if you have thoughts about specific stats in ST that might best predict the success for the upcoming year. Sample size and veteran players "trying something new" are a nightmare for predictions probably, but maybe something I can look for in younger guys about to break out?

Ben Clemens

12:26

I don't, really. Same stats as anywhere else, I guess, except I'd care a lot more about exit velocities for hitters because those seem to vary less with level of competition

This is a great time to bring up one of my favorite old articles, too: Ben Lindbergh on people who come to spring training in the best shape of their life

https://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-does-best-shape-of-his-life-spr...

Guest

12:26

What are your thoughts on the Angels getting Matt Moore? I feel like I’m getting dangerously more and more excited about Anaheim. Not good for my heart!

Ben Clemens

12:26

I love it for them

I think he's their best reliever

RA Niekro

12:27

Re: Surprise stars - I don't think anyone saw Jose Ramirez being a HOFer when he came up

Ben Clemens

12:27

For sure

He's a great example, but I just didn't follow him when he came up, so by the time I was aware of him I just thought he was a star

Mlon Eusk

12:27

What would you say are the general thresholds for strikeout rate given their barrel rate? i.e. it's acceptable to strike out 25% of the time if you barrel batted balls X% of the time.

Is that even the right way to be thinking about it?

Ben Clemens

12:27

I think that's a slight oversimplification, but it's a good place to start

12:28

Like, there are more dimensions to it than that, guys who walk a lot or line drive hitters or speed types can get away with lower barrel rates

but say, 25%/10% or something?

Mike

12:29

I have first overall pick for upcoming draft in a dynasty league, weighted toward OBP versus just AVG. I'm going to take Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday - am I overthinking it to pass on Jones bc maybe Holliday seems a bit safer since he got some at-bats in and hit well last year, while Jones had shoulder surgery? Just trying to gauge how much extra risk I'm taking on with Jones, or if his ceiling far outweighs extra risk...

Ben Clemens

12:29

I do not think you're overthinking it at all. Our prospect list isn't out yet (tomorrow! tomorrow!), and I haven't seen it, but I bet Holliday will be ahead of Jones

Obviously that's real life and not fantasy, but yeah, I think I'd still prefer Holliday

Dan'l

12:30

If they fail to resign any of them, do the Cards have 3 QO candidates from the rotation after this season?

Ben Clemens

12:30

Mmmm... I mean, it's plausible but not likely

12:31

They are all QO candidates given a solid season, but the odds of all three of Mikolas/Flaherty/Montgomery putting those seasons up and then also not signing extensions aren't high

12:32

I think the most likely extension candidate is Montgomery, but maybe that's unfair to Mikolas, he seems to like StL and I think the team could use his steady innings

Ben

12:32

Which pair of starters would you most want leading your rotation in 2023: Cole/Rodon, Scherzer/Verlander, Nola/Wheeler, Fried/Strider, McClanahan/Glasnow, or Burnes/Woodruff?

Ben Clemens

12:32

I think I'd take Cole/Rodon out of that group, though they're all great

12:33

I'm gonna be honest... I'd take deGrom/Heaney over any of them though. I'm just a hopeless deGrom optimist

baseballs deep

12:33

I see a lot of people expecting some regression from Michael Harris II. Everyone points to his groundball rate, low walk rate and oswing v zswing. However, considering he is 21 and his history of decent walk rates, high babips and k rates in the minors is there not also room for him to grow? Also, is it not reasonable to expect him to get a little better vs LHP considering you simply don't see good lefties in AA much? His first real exposure was last Summer, on the fly, to major league lefties.

Ben Clemens

12:34

I think he's just a high-volatility guy. I can see a lot of places to worry, and a lot of places to be optimistic.

Like, he doesn't have much minor league history because he just hasn't played that much professional baseball

But that's not a bad thing by any means

Just a volatile thing

12:35

I don't like his approach at all, he's somehow swinging way more at pitches out of the strike zone than league average but less at pitches in the zone than average

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