JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/22/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/22/21

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Ben Clemens

2:41

If you mean how he does in 2021, a normal amount? He just turned 22, so treat things with a grain of salt, but if he's abysmal in meaningful playing time I'd start to get slightly worried

Lawyer up Logan

2:41

It is so hard to watch someone like Mather apologize without thinking that he's lying about everything. It's not the culture or practice of the organization? Dude! You're the team president. Of course it is! This man just set the entire organization back for years, and Mather should lose his job for it.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I mean.... do we think that if he lost his job the team would somehow stop doing these things?

The racism maybe

Which would be a great step

2:42

But I think it's more important for the organization to be punished

There's legitimately no doubt that he represents the culture of the organization

And that culture isn't just against the spirit of the game, it's against the letter of the CBA

Guest

2:43

I meant the 2nd callup(Carlson's). I agree with taking things with a grain of salt, especially with a prospect, but the metrics he had in September are hard to ignore

Ben Clemens

2:43

Eh, they're easy for me to ignore! He had a swinging strike rate of 11.4%, which is lower than he had in AA in 2019.

It was 119 PA, and he had a .260 BABIP

2:44

Sometimes hit the crap out of the ball, sometimes whiffed; I haven't asked Dan speicifically, but I can't imagine his projections were affected much at all by that

Nothing is SUPER meaningful in that small of a sample, basically

Derek

2:45

Any two-player co-op board game recommendations?

Ben Clemens

2:45

I don't know if I've recommended Aeon's End, but my wife and I have really enjoyed that one

If you want it to be more of a story, Detective is one we've liked

It's a one-time deal, you play through 5 cases, so that's worth mentioning

2:46

But we have a lot of fun trying to decide which leads to follow and such, and that game is just designed really well

Mike

2:46

Do you think Carter Kieboom will figure it out this year and be an everyday player? His scouting report is so exciting but when he's played hes looked awful

Ben Clemens

2:46

I think the odds are good that he'll be fine, but I'm more worried about him than about Carlson

2:47

He just didn't hit the ball hard AT ALL, which scares me ever so slightly

That said, 2020 results are worth discounting for other reasons than small sample size (the weirdness of the season, basically)

2:48

I'm still bullish overall, but I'd be more worried about a complete lack of contact quality than a run of bad results

LB

2:48

Are you in on Shogo Akiyama as a solid everyday-caliber player? Seemed to make some mid-year adjustments that put him in line to succeed this year (though the playing time situation is a mess sans DH)

Ben Clemens

2:48

I am, depending on whether they decide to make him the regular center fielder against righties

2:49

He was borderline okay as an everyday regular even in 2020

Emphasis on borderline

2:50

I do worry that if the defense doesn't play in center, he won't be able to find at bats

I don't think he's starting over Winker/Castellanos against righties

2:51

So if the team wants Senzel in center against righties, or if they find a new center fielder somewhere, the playing time picture is going to be a BIG problem

Appa Yip Yip

2:51

Awful baseball stuff palate cleanser: we now have audio from Mars so if you want to listen to the wind on a whole other planet you can just do that now which is pretty freaking cool.

Ben Clemens

2:51

Everything about perseverance is awesome

2:52

I'm a space nerd, so I'm biased, but it's so cool

PECOTA-Skeptic

2:52

Regarding the NL Central, the Brewers are 9x more likely to win the division than the Reds over on BP. Here it isn't as stark (2x), what do the projections, espcially PECOTA, see in Milwaukee that the common thought doesn't?

Ben Clemens

2:53

I think we're just far more down on Reds batters than the common consensus is

Maybe not as down as PECOTA,b ut stlil

We think that 1B, SS, and RF will combine for 0.6 WAR for Cincy

versus 2.6 for Milwaukee, and that's not exactly their strength

2:54

We literally think that everyone who plays shortstop for the Reds in 2021 projects below replacement level

Orioles Tragic

2:54

Do either Felix Hernandez or Matt Harvey have a chance to be anything other than awful this season?

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