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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/24/2020

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Ben Clemens

2:28

So, Im not against fantasy questions, but this one might be a little too far afield for me. Dominguez has for real no statistics anywhere.

And I feel a little lost from an analysis standpoint without that.

2:29

So yeah, I don't know, flip a coin? I don't know how to value Dominguez at all, and Abrams is also hilariously far away. I guess I'd lean Abrams but I can't give you a good reaosn why.

DonJulio

2:29

Why doesn’t MLB announce PED-like suspensions for cheating? Don’t we need some deterrent for this type of thing?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Not allowed by the CBA.

2:30

It will almost certainly be a point of contention in the next CBA negotiations. But I'm not actually clear on what the players want.

Or should want

It's a be careful what you wish for kinda thing.

2:31

Like, giving more power to ownership to prevent players from being paid..... maybe think a little on that one before ceding it.

Cito's Mustache

2:31

I just noticed that StatCorner.com no longer exists :( Do you have a good source for minor league park factors?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I don't. I hack my own up from time to time, and if I'm not feeling adventurous I'll just look up old ones online, but yeah, it'd be a nice service.

Not one I'm volunteering to provide yet!

But a nice service.

Greg

2:32

"Mine at 70"... I don't think I'm familiar with your bio, am I correct in guessing that there's some trading on your resume?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Haha yeah, I guess it says a lot that I didn't even think that was a weird/jargon-y thing to say. Spent ~6 years in interest rate trading and another 4 or so as a PM.

Robbie

2:32

Will Ketel Marte get any 2nd place MVP votes this year? Or is he just gonna sweep the 1st place votes?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I'm curious to see what becomes of Marte this year. I have a hard time seeing him post a .264 ISO again, because it just came so out of nowhere, but he merits a deeper dive. If he's 2019 Ketel Marte again he should absolutely be a legit MVP contender. You're not going to have a Bellinger/Yelich situation every year

Daniel Coggins

2:34

What do the Red Sox need to have happen to contend for at least the AL Wild Card? A Darwinzon Hernandez breakout? A surge in Chavis' sophomore season?

Ben Clemens

2:35

They just need some pitching. Someone was asking about McHugh, and he'd make sense there. Hernandez being good would help, good Sale would help, Martin Perez feeling locked in with his cutter would help.

2:36

But I don't think they really need *that* much to break right. Playing the Jays and Orioles is nice, and the AL still having a lot of teams that aren't really trying helps too. Our playoff odds have them nearly 50% to make the playoffs without Price and Betts, which is saying something.

Robin Yount

2:38

By the end of the year, Keston Hiura is a top ___ 2B?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Hm. I'm going to assume this is for fantasy purposes, because that's where tiers are more useful. But I suppose I can answer both.

2:39

I'd say he's top 15 right now; potentially top 10

2:40

There are a lot of multi-position types who muck up the scales; I'd take Muncy over him, for example

And Moncada, who we have in our projections in the 2B list even though he'll be third mianly.

2:41

Gleyber similar

I don't think Hiura will quite maintain the pop that he showed in 2019

38 HR across two levels

2:42

And if that comes off a little, I think that hurts for someone who is fringey defensively (in the real world ratings)

So I'll say top 15 end of season real-world, top 10 fantasy

Mac

2:42

Has anyone taken the time to figure out the conversion factor of Statcast OAA to runs so that it can be compared to UZR and DRS?

Ben Clemens

2:42

It's not all that far from 1:1

I don't remember offhand but I did some math on it for my piece on Fernando Tatis

2:43

And it was in the .9 area I think?

The error bars on defensive statistics are such that you won't go terribly wrong assuming 1:1.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

2:43

Top 5 baseball players to make a biopic about. Go.

Ben Clemens

2:43

Ooh

Your namesake is 100% one. I'd love to see a Barry Bonds story if we could get any kind of transparency on BALCO

2:44

I'd love to watch a biopic about Puig. His story is so dramatic

And he's also a ton of fun

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