JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/5/24

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Jeremy

2:12

Follow-up to the Red Sox and Brewers/Cubs questions earlier: to what extent are teams' decisions to rebuild or go all-in dependent on the decisions of other teams in their division? Are the Red Sox retooling in part because, sometime in the last year or two, they looked at rest of the AL East and thought: "The O's are about to get good, the Jays, Rays, and Yanks are already good. Good time to retool." Did the Brewers look at the rest of the NL Central and think "Good time to trade Burnes; the Cardinals are retooling and the Cubs don't look they want to spend money yet"?

Ben Clemens

2:12

If teams aren't doing that, they're doing it wrong, but I definitely believe that it enters their minds

2:13

I'm not sure if it's a main driver of decisions or anything, but teams absolutely take divisional difficulty and the shape of future teams into account

I think it's kinda tough in Boston's case b/c let's be real, the ALE is going to be a buzzsaw of a division in five years just like it is now

2:14

but Milwaukee has done a pretty good job of being opportunistic and pivoting around what's going on in the central. I think the Twins do a good job of this as well. The Diamondbacks getting more aggressive this offseason is another good example

diadem

2:14

Do projections take into account the OBP of the hitters in front of them?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Definitely not

Insert Witty Name Here

2:14

We missed you Ben. Looking forward to a great 2024 season. That being said, curious to know what about baseball gets you jazzed up the most?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Defense

I looooooove defensive highlights

2:15

I'm really excited for a year of Masyn Winn

Keith

2:15

Surprised at the Witt extension?

Mike

2:15

Chances the Witt contract is backloaded, given the opt outs included?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I'm a little surprised I guess, but I've been the low man on Witt for a long time and I'm pretty sure I still underrate him even as I keep trying to update my priors

I need a little more time for it to sink in

Chaco

2:15

Any rumors or insights on Blake Snell's potential landing spot?

Chicken Strip

2:15

Does the Giants' trade of Ross ("Chicken Strip") Stripling portend some action on the free agent market? Seems like they pretty much have to go out and sign one or more SPs, right? And they would look a lot more competitive for a wild card spot if they also were able to sign Chapman.

Ben Clemens

2:16

I think that Snell to SF looks more likely with trading Stripling

it'd just be a weird move to make if you weren't planning on backfilling, even if:

Nate

2:16

All of his stats and peripherals suggest Keaton Winn is the next Logan Webb. Am I out of my mind for thinking he's a huge underdog in that rotation?

Ben Clemens

2:16

I definitely do not agree with this take!

But if Winn is great

2:17

That would help

Seriously, though: Logan Webb absolutely demolished the minors at every stop

2:18

Then he reached the majors at 22. Winn scuffled in AA and AAA over the last two years at 24 and 25

I think that he's intriguing for sure, but I do not see him as much of a comp for Webb

Charlie Murphy

2:18

I was offered Francisco Alvarez and Eury Perez for Jordan Walker. No brainer right? I have to take it.

Ben Clemens

2:19

uh, yeah

i don't know your league settings or anything

but yeah

Brooks Robin some

2:19

Who has a better season this year among these 30 somethings, E. Suarez, M. Chapman, or Rendon?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I'm gonna take Rendon actdually

I think that might be silly

but I'm kinda down on Chapman and I think I know what I'm getting with Suarez, which is an above average regular but nothing more

The Other Ben in DC

2:19

On a scale of Nutting to Guggenheim, what sort of owner do you expect Rubenstein to be?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I think above average but not Cohen/Guggenheim tier by any means

2:20

I get the lol private equity argument, but people were making that about Peter Seidler too

growing up in the area matters a lot

2:21

and when you take over a team at 74, and you're just wildly wealthy, why would you not want to make it good?

K DOT

2:21

@Feinsand

Bobby Witt Jr.’s extension:

2024: $2M
2025: $7M
2026: $13M
2027: $19M
2028: $30M
2029: $35M
2030: $35M
2031: $35M - player option
2032: $35M - player option
2033: $35M - player option
2034: $35M - player option

Club option 3 years/$89M:
2035: $33M
2036: $28M
2037: $28M

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