JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/6/23

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Appa Yip Yip

3:03

I like how nobody is forecasting the angels keeping Ohtani because the angels will be good and chasing a playoff spot it's all PR considerations

Ben Clemens

3:04

We're realists here

Henry

3:04

Who are some of your favorite “that guy hit how many home runs??” From the extreme juiced 2019 season

Ben Clemens

3:04

for me it's just Eric Sogard

He hit 13 bombs that year, it's wild

He hit 13 in the rest of his career

3:05

The best part is that I remember I was doing some digging on it, and even then he massively outperformed expectations. It was like 13 homers, 12 wall scrapers

and all of them just doinked over the right field fence

Ice Cream Helmet

3:05

Oh my gosh, I haven't been a chat regular for like 2 years now. Logged on today and I see the MATT DAMON thing is still happening. Ripkinian devotion to the bit.

Steven

3:05

Last year the average MLB team had 17 WAR from their position players, 14 WAR from their pitchers and 31 WAR overall. Looking at the basic depth charts tab, FG DC projects the average team to produce 28 WAR from their position players, 14 WAR from their pitchers and 42 WAR overall. Why is this? Is their a flaw is the projections (either the stat or playing time)? Or a flaw in my understanding?

Ben Clemens

3:06

We're over-projecting playing time for stars and not fixing WAR to 1000 overall, basically

I think we had a discussion about hard-forcing the WAR back to 1,000 but ended up just letting it be

3:07

I don't know what the right answer is, but basically we're projecting a ton of playing time for stars, and so the projected league we show is heavier on star performances than "real baseball". If that happened for a year, replacement level would go up and it'd be back to 1,000 WAR overall. But we use actual replacement level rather than a theoretical recalculated one, hence the "extra" projected WAR

Steven

3:07

So then do you think just sorting by FG DC underestimates teams that are more pitching dominant? Because the issue seems to only affect the hitting side of things.

Ben Clemens

3:08

Nah, I don't think that would be stable year to year

but.... maybe this year it does?

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:08

Is the Miggy Ro extension more a product of trying to save on the CBT or lack of confidence in Lux at SS you think?

Ben Clemens

3:08

porque no los dos?

Sam

3:08

If you're the yankees and you need a LHH OF bat, where are you looking on the trade market? Hoping PIT makes reynolds at the deadline or are there other candidates?

Ben Clemens

3:09

I just... I don't think they need to be aggressively pursuing this. I like the mix they have, and I'm not enamored with Reynolds at the price point the Pirates are reportedly asking (Soto+)

Oswaldo Cabrera had a very solid rookie season and everyone just hates him

Colton

3:10

Have you heard anything about who is pursuing Alex Reyes? Injuries aside, the guy has been downright nasty when he's played.

Ben Clemens

3:10

Haven't heard anything but I'm a sucker for Reyes, I'd give him a shot

Uncle Spike

3:10

A few interesting items of note from the EV95 spreadsheet. Luis Arraez has increased his EV95 for 4 straight years, Christian Yellich just had his highest EV95 ever by a decent amount, same goes for Alex Bregman. Anything to glean from that?

Ben Clemens

3:10

Hm, I'll have to think about it more but that's definitely interesting

Old Reliever Fan

3:11

Any word on Joe Smith? Think he's done or will he get a non-roster invite somewhere?

Ben Clemens

3:11

I have heard nothin at all about him

but like, that's Joe Smith for you

He's probably currently on a team and I still just haven't heard anything

He'll be a serviceable reliever at 66, pitching 50 good innings, and no one will remember that he's active

Chris

3:11

If there is a White Sox tear down come trade deadline, who are the most likely trade candidates from the team?

Ben Clemens

3:12

So you've got the pitchers, Lynn/Giolito/Lopez

Lynn has one more year of team control, Gio and Lopez each are free agents after this year

3:13

You have to imagine Joe Kelly is available if anyone wants him, and maybe Aaron Bummer if they get a reasonable haul, he has four more years left before free agency

3:14

I think their hitters will generally not be on the block, I just don't see them trading Tim Anderson, who would be the obvious name from a contract standpoint

Maybe people are higher on Moncada than I am and he'd fetch something, I'm just kinda skeptical

Guest

3:14

Re: Position adjustment for DH/ LF. Team context seems important? Like the Rangers for instance could use a replacement level player if it got them some 5 or 6 hole guy who strikes out too much, runs a low OBP and has power

Ben Clemens

3:14

Oh totally

Teams don't build their rosters in a vacuum

3:15

We need an in-a-vacuum statistic for applicability purposes but there's no way that good GM's are just going 'okay let's look at WAR and end the story there'

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