JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/8/21

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Jeff

2:12

Oooh, I noticed Ray made some Giolito-esque changes to his delivery. Any recent reads on him to check out?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Yeah, he went full Giolito, but it worked TERRIBLY

he actually switched back to his old delivery late in the year and looked better

2:13

I wrote this, conveniently enough, when he signed in TOR

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/robbie-ray-stays-in-toronto/

Bart

2:13

Why do you buy a positive Ray outlook?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Basically because I'm willing to throw out 2020

He tried a new delivery and it worked poorly

2:14

I'm not saying he's going to be an ace, but we're projecting 2.5 WAR, which is kind of close to his career average

Kelder23

2:14

What do we do long term for these guys who struggled for 60 games in 2020, like Baez, Bryant, JDM? Will they probably bounce back?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I'm going to mostly ignore 2020 statistics where I can

2:15

That's too simplistic of a process, but it's a good first cut

Mostly ignore, then go back in and look for warning signs, but discount them a bit in your head

Some of them were surely due to talent erosion, but it's just SO hard to separate real from fake in such a small cut

You'd be better served to have your prior be 'ignore it' and then start engaging with it as we get more info in 2021

Derek

2:16

Is it weird to be kind of into the Angels rotation? The return of Ohtani! Is Dylan Bundy actually an ace now? Will Canning keep developing? Heaney and Quintana are fun lefties! Also present: Alex Cobb.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Yeah I like the Angels' rotation, even if I think I would have gone a different way than Cobb for the 5/6 spot

I also really like Patrick Sandoval

We have them as a middling rotation, which is the all-time best place an Angels rotation has ever been

brad penny for your thoughts

2:16

do you think an OF of TON, Bader and Carlson can actually hold their own or be just under average per zips?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I think they'll be average or above average overall, and htat Cardinals fans will HATE it and call for Bader to get traded

I don't know if there are any players who combine 'good on-field production' and 'absolute fanbase despair' as much as Bader

Marc

2:17

Not that I know the numbers behind it, but which of the Dodgers' influx of proceeds from winning the World Series or the Padres' influx of talent was more influential in the Dodgers' decision to be the only team over the luxury tax (so far) in 2021?

Ben Clemens

2:18

I don't know the exact split, but I think the Padres' influx of talent was more important

If you're way out ahead of the competition, it's harder to argue for going above the CBT level

You're just not getting enough bang for your buck

2:19

When you get into a close race, all of the sudden those marginal wins have way more value

bohknowsbmore

2:19

Felix hernandez... o/u 10 ML starts, 5.00 ERA with the Orioles in 2021?

Ben Clemens

2:19

under 10, over 5.00

ugh

2:20

Mets don’t sign any premium free agents. Not the end of the world but nevertheless disappointing. Was their complete disinterest in Realmuto a retrospective big misstep, especially given the very reasonable contract he ultimately received?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I think it really depends on what they get done on extensions this year

If they extend Lindor and Conforto, then signing McCann makes a lot more sense

2:21

I was not enamored with the free agent class this year, to be honest

ex-Realmuto

So I'm not sure if I'd have gone the McCann route, but if they think they're signing big deals for Conforto and Lindor, and potentially one of Stro/Thor, I see why you would go cheap at catcher

Guest

2:22

Man, Matt Damon just reminds me of Boston, which reminds me of Brady, which reminds me that good things happen to bad people, because justice does not exist in this dojo, does it? No, Sensei.

Ben Clemens

2:22

Good things happening to bad people is a great inversion of the normal saying

Jeff

2:22

Dayton Moore just drafted Witt and Lacy back to back, got outstanding debuts from Singer and Bubic, and NOW Royals fans are complaining? Oh boi

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