JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/8/21

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BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

3:14

Should I give up the dream of anybody going for the Eric Davis 30/50 special? Related, 1987 Eric Davis ruled.

Ben Clemens

3:14

Yeah, that's kind of the problem

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see much prospect for a 50 steal guy who is also that much ohf a power threat

Corkage

3:15

Are you related to Roger Clemens?

Ben Clemens

3:15

Probably a non-zero amount, but also certainly very distantly at best

R Acuna

3:16

Challenge accepted!

Ben Clemens

3:16

I hope you prove me wrong!

Zach

3:16

2014 home run rates with 2020 strike out rates does not seem like it would be a sport that many would like to watch

Ben Clemens

3:16

Yeah, I hope MLB is VERY sure that isn't going to be the outcome of this deadened ball

3:17

I'm skeptical, because they goof this stuff up EVERY time

skeptical, but still hopeful. the MLB story

Matt (Oceanside)

3:17

Follow-up, I was unaware that Croneworth was so good in the minors in 2019. It feels like Lux shot up prospect rankings after his 2019 all the way to #2 on most boards (some #4 I think). Why didn't Croneworth get as much love?

Ben Clemens

3:17

Stickiness, basically

3:19

I know that sounds reductive, but seriously, it just comes down to the fact that Cronenworth wasn't a big-ticket prospect before 2019

3:20

To a lesser extent, there are legit reasons to think that

Like, hey, if Cronenworth had been better in 2018, he would have been more of a prospect

But I think that he got moved up a little too slowly due to not fitting the 'top prospect' bill enough

MoonBeam McSwine

3:21

It's a nice story about MLB and the ball, but it states.. the ball will remain within current statistical testing criteria.. the most variable component of testing is the C.O.R. (coefficient of reflexivity) The higher values being most prone to reaction/bounce. Lowering the variance while within the same specficiation range makes for a more consistent result.. no more.. no less..

Ben Clemens

3:21

That's a wonderful thing for them to say and I would argue it doesn't even remotely track with research on this

The current statistical testing criteria is comically wide for COR, and so reducing the range will be good

3:22

But to briefly quote eno's article

the memo from the office of the commissioner reads, explaining that this change had two effects — reducing the weight of the ball by less than one-tenth of an ounce, and also a slight decrease in the bounciness of the ball as measured by the COR and CCOR.

Brose Canseco

3:24

The ball used during the 2019 postseason seemed deadened compared to the regular season

3:24

Good piece from Eric on the Andrus/Krush trade just went up. Doesn’t make me feel better about the A’s end. Think the A’s FO has backslid a bit (or perhaps other FO caught up a bit)?

Ben Clemens

3:24

I do think that indeed

I don't really get the trade for them

It's hard to stay consistently ahead, basically

Jimmy

3:25

Did you watch the Superbowl?

Ben Clemens

3:25

I did, and in my generic football fan opinion, it was lame

I want to see Patrick Mahomes throwing moonbeams and winning or losing a 49-48 game

not that nonsense

And that's as someone who played defensive end in high school

5 Run Homer

3:26

Oakland's current DH to start the season looks to be some guy named Seth Brown, who depth charts projects to put up -0.9 WAR and a 73 wRC+. That's... not ideal

Ben Clemens

3:26

I don't think that Seth Brown is that bad

I'm surprised by the projections being so uniformly awful

I think it's basically b/c he's been old for his level so often

GSon

3:27

Defense in High School = Hands of Stone

Ben Clemens

3:27

Oh yes, hands of stone for sure

45 blows billygoats