JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/9/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/9/26

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Ben Clemens

2:34

So, if you take a look at our playoff odds page, you can see that we have an option to do our odds based on our WAR numbers specifically, and in that one, as you mentioned, the Reds are slightly ahead of the Pirates

2:35

the difference comes because we don't just make team projections out of WAR. We take individual projections, on a per-outcome basis (so number of K's, BB's, steals, HR's, etc), and aggregate them up into runs scored and runs allowed numbers via the BaseRuns formula, which you can read about here:
https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/

WAR is a pretty big dimension reduction, turning everything into some context-neutral 'wins'. BaseRuns does a better job of putting the team together and seeing how those outcomes often translate into run scoring. so by modeling a little more specifically than just WAR, we think it does a better job

2:36

the two generally track with each other, but you can imagine interactions where that isn't the case, or at least not perfectly the case

and what happened here is that we think the Pirates combine better than the Reds, more or less

Carlitoooos

2:36

Sackman is awesome and TA is good (certainly better than the black box stuff at Tennis insights) but a far cry from what tennis could do!

Ben Clemens

2:36

oh for sure

2:37

no argument htere. I'm just glad there's something

cool

1

Steve O

2:37

Well... The Red Sox created the problem with Devers, no? Also the Sox alienated their franchise player, and a top 10ish bat in MLB, for what exactly? To let go of Bregman in free agency? Then preaching the need for power bats and not getting any? Lots of questions, few answers that make any sense.

Ben Clemens

2:37

You're preaching to the choir here a bit, but I guess my thinking is that they really did have some knid of organizational disagreement with Devers that made them decide they'd prefer to have him not on the team to on the team

2:38

I don't actually think that I'm qualified to know if that makes sense at the team level, because I wasn't in the room. I certainly wouldn't have done it with the information I have, sitting at home today

omar moreno

2:38

I really dislike the Ozuna signing. Having Lowe at second and now O'Hearn to left makes the defense worse and won't help the pitchers any. All this for an over-the-hill DH (with a history of domestic assault, no less).

Ben Clemens

2:38

I have to say taht I like it a lot less given their roster construction

this could be a very bad defense

2:39

and god, O'Hearn in left in a park where they used to play Gregory Polanco because "left is like another center here"?

bosoxforlife

2:39

For the Pirates to actually contend for a playoff spot they will have to ride their group of starters very hard. Do you think it is possible to see Skenes throw 225 innings?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I don't, because I think that the math is just too hard there. I think we could see him exceeding 210 but 225 is really a lot. that'd be the most innings anyone has thrown since 2022

RH

2:40

Where do Verlander and Scherzer end up?

I was just thinking about Scherzer and Verlander but now I see that the top 12 free agents by projected 2026 WAR are starting pitchers and I'm wondering what is going on

Ben Clemens

2:41

I think that has to do with the divergence between pitcher and hitter age

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hitters-keep-getting-younger-pitchers-stay...

this is just the way the league has been heading

cutch22

2:41

I think that adding depth for the Pirates is a huge step forward. In the previous years we have seen guys like Ji-Hwan Bae, Josh Palacios, and Cal Mitchell get heavy at bats because someone gets hurt and suddenly they are a starter. having options feels new for the Bucs and I think adding offense by any means can be seen as a win.

Ben Clemens

2:41

so yeah, this isthe counterpoint, and I think it's a reasonable one

cool

1

I wish the depth was multi-positional, in that O'Hearn isn't actually much of a utility player

2:42

if Lowe gets hurt, it's not like O'Hearn and Ozuna are covering

but yes, in general, I think that teams should be thinking about the totality of possible options, not just what the lineup looks like on opening day

in the same way that I like the IKF signing for the Sox even though they hope not to need him much, I like signing more hitters than you need

2:43

just.... why are they all DH's??

Carl

2:43

Biathlon and Curling are genuinely great sports to watch. The way they're structured just maintains tension and excitement throughout the events.

Ben Clemens

2:43

I'm gonna steal 'chess on ice' from my friend to describe curling

it's truly great, and also very easy to understand for the uninitiated and yet fun to watch

cool

1

my wife had never watched an entire biathlon race before and she could not stop laughing at the penalty laps

2:44

the US missed three shots in a row in the relay and she was just aghast at the fact that they make them do actual penalty laps

El Tim

2:44

I'm very confused by the Skubal arbitration situation. Unless I'm missing something, for the Tigers to win, ostensibly they had to prove that Skubal wasn't worth $32m a year. Yet, in the middle of the hearing, they sign a lesser pitcher on the open market for $38m? How could they possibly square that and why bother putting your franchise player through a hearing for no good reason when you're clearly going to lose?

Ben Clemens

2:44

no no no, they waited until after the conclusion of the hearing to announce the signing as I understood it

2:45

but um.... yeah, look, I think that they miscalculated badly and deserve to pay the price for it

embarrassing behavior by them

Potato

2:45

Wait, you don’t like either side, but you’re super into the trade for the Sox? What the heck, Ben!

Ben Clemens

2:45

allow me to rephrase

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