JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/19/26

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Ben Clemens

12:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I'm just getting some coffee brewing, since I'm used to a slightly later chatting window, but let's get started and then I'll take a quick break to fuel up

Chris Hanel

12:01

Have you started thinking about your bold preseason predictions?

Ben Clemens

12:01

Bold? yes. How to make them not way too bold? no

Matt VW

12:01

Does the change in MLBPA leadership make a lockout more likely? less likely? not move the needle at all?

Ben Clemens

12:01

I'm thinking it won't move the needle at all

12:02

the fact that Meyer was already the chief negotiator makes me feel like they're gonna stick with the existing strategy without too much trouble

Oaktown Blues

12:02

The lab stuff is really cool. So far in the pitching bot visualizer every pitcher/pitch combo I've tried has had a 0% danger miss rate - is this a glitch or are those types of pitches exceedingly rare?

Ben Clemens

12:03

oh yeah, if you ask a Lab question today, I'll answer it. I'm pretty excited about it and also would love to hear any feedback, which is why I switched into a chat on the day of it coming out in the first place

This is probably because you haven't started looking at late counts. Early in the count, there are basically no danger misses, because batters don't swing enough

but when the pitcher is ahead, danger misses change a ton

my favorite example of this is Ryan Helsley, slider, two strikes

Jesse

12:03

Re: Fangraphs Labs -- we're truly getting closer to Fangraph's mission of democratizing baseball analytics, huh?

Ben Clemens

12:04

I sure hope so

I talked about this a lot with Sean, and I'm not sure how much it came across in the introductory article, but that's a lot of the goal. I've made a lot of one-off tools over the year for my own edification but I always thought that I'd learn more if more people could look at the data

12:05

after all, one of the big benefits to writing for FanGraphs is that I'm basically hooked into good baseball data via IV. I got a lot better at carving stuff up after a few years in the FG data ecosystem. But why hoard that stuff? Now everyone can look at it

12:05

Just dropping a line to say I get a ton of complements on my fangraphs retro sweatshirt anytime I wear it! Also, do you buy Randy Vasquez’s second half success last year? Probably not sustainable at that level but I would buy a step change in command and stuff

Ben Clemens

12:06

I was too late to get the retro sweatshirt, but my wife got the sweater and it draws a lot of compliments wherever we go

Kate

12:06

Picks to click still coming today from the prospect team?

Ben Clemens

12:06

yes indeed. Prospect Week will continue until we run out of Weeks

War2D2

12:06

I haven’t had a chance to play with it much yet, but congrats on the FG Labs launch! I don’t work in web dev anymore, and the part I miss most is when something would go live for the first time and other people could see what you’ve been working on for months.

Ben Clemens

12:06

It's extremely satisfying. My first time ever doing this, too. I've never been a developer at all, so it's a real thrill

12:07

I was up late last night just thinking aobut how cool this all is

Bob

12:07

Can Mike Trout have one more good healthy season....PLEASE

Ben Clemens

12:07

Man, I sure hope so

RAH

12:07

Is some sort of small market or anti-big market bias showing when I find myself more interested in the position battles for the Royals and Brewers than, say, the Dodgers and Red Sox?

Ben Clemens

12:08

I don't think so, I think there's some implied 'well I'm gonna hear enough about the Dodgers and Sox during the season' there that is probably true

bringbackpologrounds

12:08

Are the Mariners poised to build an AL West dynasty of their own? What are the biggest internal/external obstacles that could prevent this?

Ben Clemens

12:09

I mean, the biggest external obstacles are just that the AL West isn't a bad division. even the cheap-o A's look pretty good, and appear to be spending a bit more. The biggest internal obstacles? Something like 'trouble developing hitters' but it's unclear whether that's a stadium thing, regime thing, random thing

Jake Jortles

12:09

So, behind the scenes at Fangraphs Labs, is it anything like the Muppet Labs?

Ben Clemens

12:09

It is exactly like the Muppet Labs, in fact

12:10

Baumann just pops up with ominously bubbling beakers, and Beekers, all the time

12:10

Would labs ever accept user-coded visualization projects if given a framework rubric?

Ben Clemens

12:10

user-coded? dunno. user-inspired? oh yeah, the feedback form is not just for show. Sean is coding up a 'change log' page so we can make a few adjustments as we speak

david t

12:11

Is there a hot streak analyzer for pitchers? I remember seeing some data one time on how pitchers can get on hot streaks but I'm wondering if the data set (1x every 5-6 days) and matchup makes this type of analysis too noisy?

Ben Clemens

12:11

There isn't yet, but I can tell you that we have three new lab ideas in the hopper already, and 'expand hot streak in at least a few ways' has been really popular separately from thoes

so I'd expect to see more features, and perhaps pitching, in the medium term

12:12

this was really just a proof of concept, honestly: PitchingBot Visualizer and Squared Up Explorer were already tools I had in my head, but building something new from Jason's idea was a good test of the Lab framework

Alex

12:12

Ben, who is your favorite active baseball player?

Ben Clemens

12:12

oh man, this is a tough one

12:13

I like Logan Webb a lot. I like Jacob deGrom a lot. Big fan of Masyn Winn and Lars Nootbaar too

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