JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/19/26

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Ben Clemens

12:27

it's just that very few guys have been as bad as Castellanos at defense, while switching so late in their career, so I think we just have to see how it works rather than trying to estimate how it might go based on a sketchy set of comps

Random Fact Generator

12:27

A subscription to Fangraphs provides excellent value.

Ben Clemens

12:27

concur!

GA Blood

12:27

I read earlier this week that multiple owners are suggesting that the game cannot survive under it's current economic setup (read as: without a salary cap). Isn't this a really bad business strategy? I'm having a hard time understanding why the holders of billion-dollar assets would voluntarily come out and suggest that they're facing imminent ruin instead of trying to offload the assets themselves. How long can they really force a lockout before it devalues their investments?

Ben Clemens

12:28

I mean, I don't really buy their contention, and I don't think they're actually going to stick to it

I also don't think they're really convincing anyone, teams keep selling!

12:29

I think it's just negotiating stance stuff. and like, the players can see the real books. but trying to court the public has been a successful strategy for owners in the past

'these ingrate players' with variously veiled racial animus has been a really strong argument for generations, why stop now?

12:29

What other disciplines should the Olympics introduce for baseball players next time out? I want to see a 1 on 1 game between pitchers and hitters representing different countries. Points for line drives only maybe

Ben Clemens

12:29

oh man, I've been thinking about medal inflation a lot these olympics as I watch all the nonsense sports

12:30

and also, find out that i love all the nonsense sports

the brother/sister team of Slovenians winning mixed doubles ski jumping was amazing

12:31

so: home run derby

I think you could see a bunt derby like the KBO all star game

12:32

maybe some version of a team rundown-escaping challenge?

but home run derby is an easy one. individual medals to go along with team ones

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:32

Petition to name your new toy the Flab.

Ben Clemens

12:32

haha, pass for now but if it takes off, I'll have no choice but to accept it

Charles

12:32

Hi Ben, Love your work. I have been listening to a few podcasts to get ready for the season. Tablesetters Baseball had Shawn Spradling previewing WBC which was tremendous. What is your hype level for WBC?

Ben Clemens

12:33

it's very high. I've podcasted a little and I'm also loving Kiri's pod-by-pod previews

I went to the last WBC, dunno if I'll make this one but the vibe was immaculate

12:33

also about the finance background - "hedges are for gardens" is one of my favourite articles of yours and I personally love your writing especially in the life to explain sports realm

Ben Clemens

12:33

thanks very much

12:34

yeah - when I get a chance to overlay useful expected value lessons (the kind of finance i did is a lot about learning how to REALLY measure expected value) with baseball, I feel like I do a good job with it

War2D2

12:34

Kind of out of left field, but the question about comparing the Pirates (great arms, no bats) vs. the A’s (thumpers, human equivalents of one of those spring-loaded pitching machines that loft wiffleballs for kindergarteners to hit in the back yard) made me think about the 2015/16 Cubs, and how they had a historic group of prospects and bought a top-notch rotation to win one (1) championship. I’ve often said that the main reason the window slammed shut as quickly as it did wasn’t the bats not developing like they should, but that they signed the wrong pitcher in Lester instead of Scherzer (Lester was great in 2016, then below league avg for the rest of that contract while Scherzer was winning Cy Youngs and racking up 7-WAR seasons). Have you ever considered doing a retrospective on teams whose windows of contention were much shorter than they should have been, and what the management did wrong to cause it?

Ben Clemens

12:34

it's definitely really interesting to think about, and I do keep a list of retrospective ideas just in case baseball every pauses for a while

12:35

I think it's also interesting to see how the Cubs plan got xeroxed (maybe it's the Astros plan, honestly?), and then since everyone was doing it the price of pitching just kept climinb

climbing*

the article about relative pitcher and hitter age is relevant here too

GBS42

12:35

No question, just thanks for all your terrific analysis and writing!

Insert Witty Name Here

12:35

Just wanted to take a moment to recognize how far Fangraphs has come to where we have The Lab. We live in an embarrassment of riches in a game of throwing a ball and hitting it with a stick.

Ben Clemens

12:36

I'm choosing to think of these as a congratulations to all of FanGraphs, and yeah, this is great

It's pretty thrilling to live in a world where if we have an idea for data, we can just make it

or well, make the idea, not make the data

I've learned a lot about using little dummy datasets to test out my data viz tools in the last few months, but don't worry, you guys get the good stuff

Alex

12:36

Should baseball be in the summer olympics? Do you have a opinion with WBC existing?

Ben Clemens

12:38

I think the normal setup of it being non-MLB guys is okay with me. It wouldn't crush me if they got rid of it, though - I think it's kinda like soccer in the olympics. like, sure, great, it's there! but I'd rather watch the World Cup, and everyone knows that, which is why they send juniors there

Foul tips

12:38

Seeing as they are not exactly either foul balls or swinging strikes (and if anything might be more akin to a swinging strike for the batter and foul ball for the pitcher), couldn’t they be their own category?

Ben Clemens

12:38

I mean, it's tricky! It's not a foul ball for the pitcher if there are two strikes!

12:39

but yeah, maybe they coudl be their own category. that gets into an analysis paralysis issue, though

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