JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/21

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, and welcome to a Monday chat. Now that Spring Training games are on TV, it really feels like baseball again to me

So let's talk about it!

Jess

2:01

Are you expecting a big bounce back from Laureano or was the 2020 regression a warning sign?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I'm worried

I was always a little down on his ability to reproduce his 2018 season

2:02

And honestly was just a little baffled when he managed it in 2019

But 2020 looks more to me like who he is. A few too many strikeouts to be an absolutely elite hitter, but a guy who can do enough other stuff (he walked more in 2020, but he's hit for more average or power in the past) to make it work as overall average

2:03

An overall average hitter who can play center is a nice piece, which is why we're projecting him for more than 3 WAR, but I think if you're expecting his 2019 slash line (.288/.340/.521), eh, you might be waiting a while

Jason N

2:03

Is it possible Preller isn’t done? Local rumors have the Padres asking about a Yelich/Hader deal with a return centered around Myers and “pitching”. No way he can pull this off, right?! What does the rest of that package need to look like - Gore, Paddack and maybe Cronenworth?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I'm skeptical that Yelich is involved, far less so that Hader is. The Brewers aren't exactly incentivized to move Yelich at the moment

Whereas Hader fits the sweet spot of acquirable but also impactful

Billy Goat

2:04

Were the Cubs really worried about payroll, or were they just trying to find a polite story to trade away Darvish because they think he is going to break or regress? It seems like they had the money for approximately everyone else.

Ben Clemens

2:05

If it was really just about Darvish, then they played a masterful three-year-longn game where they whined about money and didn't make their team better when there were easy spots to do so

I probably should have put masterful in quotes, b/c uh

That would be silly

Maybe they're ALSO concerned about Darvish breaking, it can be both

But the Cubs have acted like they're constrained by money for years, so it doesn't make sense to say that it was just a PR gambit to trade Darvish

Derek

2:05

Live professional baseball is happening right now!

Ben Clemens

2:05

So so true

Appa Yip Yip

2:06

What do you think of Rowdy Tellez? Last season caveats apply, but he cut his K rate from 28% to 16%

Ben Clemens

2:07

I'm still skeptical that he can make his approach work, because he chases SO MUCH

a lot of his reduction in strikeouts came down to the fact that his o-contact spiked

So he was making contact with a bunch of bad pitches, basically

But that's no way to live long-term

2:08

Basically I haven't changed my evaluation of him much based on 2020; above-average bat, but not by enough to offset the lack of defensive home

Hope I'm wrong, but that's where I'm at right now

Sean M.

2:08

Can you talk a little Pablo Lopez? Saw FG has him pegged for significant regression, but seems pretty solid to me outside of that historically horrible Braves start. Why so down on him?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I'm not making the projections, of course, but I don' think it's crazy for us to project a career 4.47 ERA, 4.03 FIP pitcher for a.... 4.0 ERA and 4.04 FIP

2:10

You could maybe convince me that changeup-centric pitchers with good command are generally undervalued by Steamer and ZiPS

He's got a little Kyle Hendricks to him, which you can see here:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/pablo-lopez-641154?stats=...

In the movement profiles

2:11

I would take the under on his projections

Under as in, lower ERA

But not b/c of what he's shown in the majors -- I think the projections have done an adequate job of that part

Cube Jockey

2:11

Can Alex Reyes cut it as a fifth starter?