JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/21

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Ben Clemens

2:24

I'm very excited about Milwaukee's pitching staff

2:25

Eno Sarris has Brandon Woodruff as SP4 in fantasy, I wouldn't say I'm THAT excited

But switching from Keston Hiura to Kolten Wong is SUCH a big upgrade

brewers optimist

2:25

better breakout candidate: freddy peralta or josh lindblom. lindblom might get more innings but freddy has a higher ceiling.

Ben Clemens

2:25

On that topic, I think I'd take Lindblom as a breakout pick

2:26

Here's my thinking: I know that Lindblom spent the offseason tinkering with his fastball to try to add ride

That might not work out, I have no clue

But I know that a thing has changed there, which makes a change in results more believable to me ex ante

2:27

Not that I'm down on Peralta, I just think breakouts are more likely when a player has done a specific thing differently

Sharps

2:27

Yogi brand Kava tea is amazing. Nice flavor, very relaxing vibe

Ben Clemens

2:27

any more tea recommendations? I have a Yankees bullpen esque tea selection these days, an embarrassment of riches that I struggle to deploy correctly, but I'm always looking for more

Guest

2:27

There’s a bunch of SPs coming back from injury or otherwise—Kluber, German, Paxton, etc. Do you have a preferred dart throw among the lot?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Reyes is my favorite if you count him

If you don't, I have Kluber first and Taillon second

Sharps

2:29

you get tasked to make a promo for Pandemic featuring a current MLB player. Who would it be, what would they do?

Ben Clemens

2:29

I'm gonna take Lindor, because he's such a joy overall and has already said some things to the effect of 'wear a mask dummy'

I'd have him doing vaguely recognizable baseball things

Only with a six-foot pole attached to his glove

2:30

Socially distanced tags, socially distanced celebrations, that kind of thing

Moonlight Graham

2:30

Are there any players where you're especially interested in their spring training news? Pitchers adding / losing velo, batters changing approaches, prospects ...

Guest

2:30

I know we often talk about how ST stats don’t really matter, but what things can we look at and glean something? Statcast things like exit and pitching Velo? K%?

Sodo Mojo

2:30

Given the short season and lack of MILB season last year do spring training stats take on more significance as you are looking to evaluate players or are they still noise to be generally ignored?

Ben Clemens

2:31

All these questions get at roughly the same thing, so I'll lay out how I feel about ST this year

One, more parks have Statcast setups, so that's huge

Velo, max EV, new pitches; you can look out for all of these things

2:32

I'd focus on stats like that, b/c pitch mix is goingn to be tough and most production-based stats just don't have the requisite mix of competition and sample size to matter

But if you see a guy add 3mph of velo, that's super relevant

So the people I'm most intersted in are pitchers where we don't have a velo reading for 2020 or where their 2020 was markedly different from prior years

mmddyyyy

2:33

How would you explain to someone why trout is a better bet to age well than pujols was?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I think the easiest way would be to do this

Have them name some transcendent players from the past

Then ask how each of them aged in their 30s

Pujols is one of the worst aging outcomes for someone of his dynamism in his 20s

So everyone is a good bet to age better than Pujols has, because he aged so poorly

Appa Yip Yip

2:34

The Jays seem to be operating on the assumption that one of their many depth starters will take a step forward this year (and that Robbie Ray will throw strikes (26 strikes on 28 pitches today!)) and the difference between said starter and Odorizzi isn't going to be enough to justify a multi year deal. What do you think about this? Are they holding back to try and get one of the older elite guys next off-season on a short high aav deal?

Jake O.

2:34

What happens with me now - are teams overlooking a good value at my reported asking price of 3 / 45, or am I over-estimating myself? Any chance this ends up as a Keuchel situation that bleeds into June?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I am into Robbie Ray, I think that you can throw out 2020

2:35

I don't think he's gonna be a Cy Young candidate or anything, but he can go back to being his ARI self -- frustrating b/c his stuff is elite and his results are merely above average

2:36

That said, yeah, i think that's the Jays' rough point of view. They have a lot of 5th starter types if they pan out. They don't have much proven pitching, but I think they believe that enough of their lottery tickets/prospects will pan out that by season's end, they'll have an Odorizzi-esque 4th starter

You could argue that it's dangerous in a tight playoff race to wait to figure things out, but I think it's defensible

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