JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/21

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Ben Clemens

3:01

I'd like to see deGrom hit against Trout before I weigh in on this

3:02

But if I have to pick right this minute, I'll give the edge to 26 deGrom's

It's quite interesting, though, b/c we can approximate what Trout will do when facing deGrom (with deGrom's in the field)

But what happens the other way is a pure guess

Pizzacutter

3:02

Have you been following Russell Carleton's OOTP series at BP? Any thoughts on it?

Ben Clemens

3:03

I have been, and it's a lot of fun. I'd read Russell write about almost anything, because I get a lot of value out of the way he lays out his thoughts, but I think the subject matter works too

Derek

3:03

Is this season Ohtani's last chance to prove he can be a two-way player?

Ben Clemens

3:03

I think it is unless he is bad at both things

3:04

If he struggles to stay healthy on the mound again and is a 120 wRC+ hitter, he's just going to end up as a hitter most likely

If he struggles to stay healthy but the bat totally disintegrates, I think the Angels will give him more rope on the mound

G4

3:05

Over/under one all-star quality season by Spencer Howard in next 5 years. What's your bet?

Ben Clemens

3:05

The safe bet is under, b/c he'd need 2 to avoid a push

3:06

If it's at 0.5, though, I think I'd take the over but it would be really close. I like Howard's fastball well enough and he's gotten so many whiffs at minor league levels that it's hard to believe he can't miss bats in the majors

The reason it's not an easy over is because there are only so many All Stars

3:07

I think Heyward has a good shot at being good at some point soon, but being one of the 8 best starters in the NL? Can definitely happen, but not a guarantee

Matt Damon

3:07

MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens

3:07

Hey there Matt, great to hear from you

EbenezerBatflip

3:07

Expectations for JD Martinez now that he can watch video of pitchers again? Does he bounce back or is he in decline now?

Ben Clemens

3:07

Yes

3:08

I think the video thing is generally overhyped as a reason for failure, but he's certainly bouncing back at least a bit

I do think the days of 150 wRC+ are over, though

Appa Yip Yip

3:08

Who runs with the starting C position in Toronto? Does Alejandro Kirk take it from Danny Jansen, or do questions about how his body will hold up keep him in a backup C/DH role?

Ben Clemens

3:09

I think that Kirk is best served as a C/DH type, at least for now, so that gives the job to Jansen by default

That said, I'd want to do something like 60 Jansen/40 Kirk

And give Kirk some run at DH too, when you aren't using Vlad/Rowdy there

3:10

I think a true time share is completely reasonable

JoeD

3:11

Heaney or Montas for 2021?

Ben Clemens

3:11

Heaney for me. I can't really explain why but something about the Montas profile just worries me

3:12

I'm open to believing that I just have Montas evaluated wrong, but I dunno. The fastball doesn't wow me, and neither does the splitter/changeup thing, which means it's basically just how his slider plays

Derek

3:13

Was watching ST on Sunday and Vladito looked noticeably leaner - do you think that translates to noticeably better performance? Either short- or long-term?

Ben Clemens

3:13

He lost like 45 pounds!

3:14

I'm not clear on whether I think it's good for his game or not. It's certainly good for his fielding, and the knock with Vlad has never been power, it's been his inability to get the ball off the ground. So I'm a qualified yes on this translating to better performance, but I want to see some numbers. Is he still hitting the ball as hard?

Tashika

3:14

Do you see Maeda as a top 10-15 SP after last year or does that over-weight the 2020 small sample?

Ben Clemens

3:15

I think that's probably overweighting 2020 slightly. I think saying he's in the 15-25 range is reasonable, though, and honestly I wouldn't fight you too much if you wanted to say he was #15

It's not like he wasn't good before, you know?

The Dodgers just sliced his performance up weirdly between starting and relieving

3:16

He's 25th per Depth Charts, and I like him over some of the people in front of him

Kevin

3:16

I have not seen a single article on this site (or many others) mention the home park for the Blue Jays. Dunedin, what do we know about it, how will it play? Will playing outdoors in Florida in May/June affect the players? Assuming Canada does not allow sports team to travel into the country until mid-summer at the earlier

Ben Clemens

3:17

This is a huge problem that we're still wondering about

Literally no one has played in the new Dunedin stadium, because they renovated it in 2019

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