JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/11/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/11/24

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Reputation

2:27

Who are some low-recognition prospect names that are going to get at least 250 PAs this year/contribute on a major league level in some way? Is James Wood going to play in at least 80 games, for example?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Seller of Wood getting that many games, though I really hope he does

this is not a place where I'm particularly plugged in

so I think I'll defer this question to people who know the ins and outs a little bit better

BiscuitPants

2:29

Something I discovered while perusing the leaderboards is that last year Corbin Carroll had the second greatest baserunning season of all time (and the greatest since 1887!): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&ind=1&sortcol.... Firstly if you want this as a free article idea go for it lol. I’d love to see any breakdown you can do. But second, does Fangraphs have any more granular data on baserunning to help understand this? Or any plans to add it? UBR and wGDP are kind of a black box to me. (I know BRef has some event-level stuff on their season page but it’s limited and hard to use and none of it flows into their player pages or leaderboards.)

Ben Clemens

2:29

It's definitely something I'm interested in writing about. I have been meaning to look into UBR at a more granular level

mabye this will be the kick in the butt I need to start doing it

GraphsFan

2:29

When did your own baseball playing skill max out? Any fun anecdotes from your playing days?

Ben Clemens

2:29

You know what is shocking?

I stopped playing in little league

2:30

I played football and basketball and ran track in high school, but I was never any good at baseball

RTJ

2:30

Roster Resource surprised me when I looked at San Diego this week: Jackson Merrill in the starting CF spot with almost 500 at bats. Agree?

Ben Clemens

2:30

Let me put it this way: Jason is the best person in the industry at figuring out playing time, and he's also the biggest Padres fan I know

I would trust his Padres PT projections more than anyone else's

wheelhouse

2:30

when are the yankees going to trade Soto

laughing

2

Ben Clemens

2:30

Why not Zoidberg

2:30

Any concern about the Acuna injury from a fantasy standpoint?

Ben Clemens

2:31

In a draft, I'm still taking him first and not particularly close

I assume that the chance of lower steals would erode his value somewhat in an auction, but I'm not an auction guy

O's fan

2:31

I am thrilled to even consider this, and likely crazy, but is Coby Mayo a better prospect than Jackson Holiday? What do you see as Holliday's carrying skill so to speak (besides all of them, even though none are 70 grades like Mayo's power/arm).

Ben Clemens

2:32

Yeah, I think Holliday's carrying tool is everything. Hit/power combos at shortstop are so rare

and to be fair, I think that he might end up at second or third, I really like Henderson at short

but yeah, I'd still take Holliday over Mayo if I had to choose

at, say, 70% confidence

Colton

2:32

Seen quite a few people say its the Twins division to lose. I don't buy that at all, they made no major acquisitions this off season and even lost several key contributors to their team from last year. I realize the division overall is pretty soft, but the Twins are not a great ball club on paper by any means in my opinion. Why doesn't it feel like other people see this?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I just disagree with you. I thought the Twins were quite good last year, they project well again this year, and their division is putrid

2:34

I don't think they're as good of a team as the AL East squads, which is how they project for 85 wins in a weak division while the Jays project for 83.5 in a tough one. But I don't know, are the Guardians gonna challenge them? The Tigers?

Like maybe! But it doesn't feel like a smart bet

Guest

2:34

Among all qualified SP since 1960, deGrom is top 3 in career ERA, FIP, ERA-, FIP-... his dominance in his healthy years feels honestly underrated.

Ben Clemens

2:34

I agree with this

TomBruno23

2:34

Winn's defense will be a blast and hopefully he is not moved to CF so this year's Mark Ellis (Brandon Crawford) can play too much Never Forget Mike Matheny.

Ben Clemens

2:34

I can pretty much guarantee that that won't happen

2:35

I'll personally tempt Crawford back to the bay with some garlic fries and my epic retelling of his elite pitching appearance (I was walking out of the stadium and ran back to see him pitch) if he starts eating into Winn's shortstop playing time

Also I just have to show you this tweet of his

I'm gonna ntake a quick break while I dig into it

2:36

https://twitter.com/MasynWinn/status/1543096300324982785

there we go

he's perusing Cardinals prospect twitter and replying to gifs of himself, what a legend

2:37

also the play in that gif is one of my favorites, what an absolute madman to even attempt that throw

Chicago Steve

2:37

Is it completely nuts to suggest Wyatt Langford play some first for the Rangers with Lowe almost certain to start the year on the IL?

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