JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/18/24

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Ben Clemens

2:03

I think the Brewers are a good pick here. And I guess the Reds? I think the NL Central teams are better than people think, basically

It's not 2:00 EDT

2:03

The chat says Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/18/24 will begin on:
March 18, 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT

But the top line on the site says Ben Clemens will be chatting at 1 PM!

Ben Clemens

2:03

Oh that's entirely my fault. I forgot how the auto-time-suggester works and posted the article that links to this chat too early

Insert Witty Name Here

2:03

Are you concerned with Corbin Carroll’s health profile?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Yes!

It's just about the only thing I'm concerned about with him

RTJ

2:03

_________ will lead Milwaukee in saves in 2024 (inclusive of Devin Williams)

Ben Clemens

2:03

Abner Uriba

2:04

Uribe*

Made Wiley

2:04

What PPPs are you doing this year?

Ben Clemens

2:04

2B, SP 16-30

I'm pretty excited to switch out of SP 1-15 to SP 16-30, I've been doing 1-15 for a while and it's just always the same guys

Brian

2:04

Paul Skenes has now pitched to an official "smattering" of major leaguers. He's thrown 102 mph--and given up a homer to Amed Rosario. Have we learned anything that influences expectations? Anything in his performance in spring training 2024 v. end of his 2023 season that informs how to view the player?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I'd argue not really. He is what he is, which is a guy with tremendous stuff who we need to see against major leaguers b/c there's not a ton of point in having him in the minors

RTJ

2:04

woah we have baseball this week!!!

Ben Clemens

2:05

Heck yeah!

SucramRenrut

2:05

Which of these boring outfielders (eligible) do you like most for this year? Conforto, Pederson, Yaz, Haniger, Wade, Canha Laureano. And do you like Raffaele and Doyle more than them.

Ben Clemens

2:05

I think I'd take Yaz first, Wade second, Raffaele third?

Like you said, boring

Bleeding black & orange

2:05

Colton Cowser has to make the opening day roster right? He’s on fire - let’s go!!!!

Ben Clemens

2:05

We're projecting him to make the roster

2:06

He truly is on fire

Josh

2:06

Dave Roberts indicated Shohei may play the field at some point this season. You buying it?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I think it makes sense as a long-term play. Reasonably speaking, the Dodgers have to assign a reasonable probability weight to Ohtani giving up pitching at some point

2:07

So doing it in a way that increases their defensive flexibility, and in a year where it won't be impacting his rest on the pitching side, makes sense to me

He's clearly a good enough athlete to do it

Marc

2:07

I think it was Jay who told me to ask you this question a while ago, but I kept checking into chats ten minutes after you wrapped up. Can you give a statistical guess of what Witt’s statline would have to look like for his option to be exercised? I can’t really fathom a scenario in which the royals would want to pay him an extra 100 million, but also in which he wouldn’t have exercised his opt out in any of the 4 years before.

Ben Clemens

2:09

This is a good reminder that I need to update the old opt out probability calculator to deal with these new fancy contracts

I think the way this happens is that he's hurt before year 1 of the opt outs

er, player options, whatever, semantics

but he's hurt coming in, and keeps getting better as those four years go on. I agree that it's phenomenally unlikely

2:10

I think it's entirely about trajectory

2:10

Am I the only one who could see pretty tough year for the Phillies? Bohm is an average-ish player. Stott was boosted by defense last year, but overperformed his batted ball data and didn't hit the ball any harder in Year 2 than Year 1 and probably isn't a ~4 WAR player. Marsh way overperformed last year. Their OF looks like one of the worst in baseball. JTR is aging and clearly slowing down. Two great starters and a bunch of question marks in the rotation, and a good-not-great BP. They made no improvements from last year really unless you consider Merrifield an improvement.

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think that's perfectly reasonable, I am reasonably down on Stott

That said, I don't think the NL East is very good

it's not like the Marlins or Mets got way better

2:11

and I think that Nola will probably be better than he was in 2023

Stats CEO

2:11

Hi I'm just back to let you know you ruined my life. My algorithm correctly predicted how left handers hit in monsoons on jupiter, in a 1-2 count with no runners on base but you just HAD to show me up???

Ben Clemens

2:11