JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/20

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome.

I'm on a backup computer today as I think my desktop might have finally kicked the bucket, so I'll probably be a little slower. Bear with me.

Sale Day

2:01

Should I be worried about Sale or do you expect a bounce back year?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I mean, the recent news isn't good!

We'll see how he looks, but if he's really starting the season on the IL

Even if briefly

You have to worry about his stamina for the year as a whole.

NastyNate

2:02

Who's your breakout SP this year?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I've said Adrian Houser before, and I'll stick with that here. I like everything he's working with.

Jerome

2:02

What would the A's have to offer in extension talks with Semien to get him to consider signing? Would 5 years, between $110-$120 be enough?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Interesting.

2:03

Let's see.

2:04

I think that would get it done -- it's hard to figure out value on someone like Semien who changed his established level so much.

2:05

But I'm not sure the A's would be interested at that point, because they survive on surplus value and it's tough to make their crazy-low-payroll model work with someone paid that highly unless they're an MVP candidate.

Dak

2:05

I have a problem with fWAR being calculated for pitchers using FIP. No matter how fluky the performance is, the lower the ERA for the pitcher, the better the outcome was for the team. It would be like assigning fWAR for hitters using xwOBA. Doesn’t that seem flawed? I just think there are too many “lucky” outcomes that add or subtract value in baseball to try and evaluate a player’s value with anything but what outcome it caused.

cool

1

Ben Clemens

2:05

Eh, it's not clear. WAR and WPA are different things, you know?

2:06

If you're trying to say how a team did in a player's games, then ERA is great.

But the analogy to wOBA doesn't track.

Because ERA values, say, a home run differently based on who was on base.

But batter WAR certainly doesn't.

2:07

There are definitely lucky outcomes, and if you wanted to work out some kind of wOBA-allowed based WAR, sure.

2:08

But FIP is a lot closer to wRC+ (or wOBA, whatever) based batter WAR than anything else

Because it's the most context-neutral simple pitching stat we have

Ben

2:08

Apparently Yankees are interested in Steve Matz. What's a fair price?

Ben Clemens

2:09

So if I'm reading this right, Matz has two years left on his deal.

2:10

He's maybe more name rec than results so far in his career, but he's something like a league average pitcher.

And he'll be cheap! He signed a $5 million deal in arb this year.

2:11

So let's say you project 10m for him in arb next year, two years of a league average pitcher for $15 million. It's probably something like a 45+ FV batter or 50 FV pitcher if you think our surplus value estimates are reasonable.

2:12

To be honest, I'm not super up to speed on the exact shape of the Yankees system at the moment. But let's look.

2:13

I dunno. One of their interesting arms? Maybe Sikkema or Gomez? I'd have to look into it more.

Mo

2:13

Carlson sure is making it hard to not bring him north with the big club. I just hope it’s Fowler’s job he’s taking when he makes it up instead of Bader or O’Neil. I know it’s small sample, but what has he shown in the past year that says he wouldn’t immediately be better than Fowler right now?

Baby Yoda

2:13

Odds Dylan Carlson makes the STL roster? If so, what does the outfield look like? Fowler, Carlson, Bader, O'Neill, Edman all have a claim they should start (none is iron-clad).

Ben Clemens

2:14

Yeah, if he keeps playing like this, I think it's likely he'll be on the opening day roster.

I follow Derrick Goold on Twitter and it seems like every other tweet is that Carlson is on base again.

Small sample size and all, but he's hitting the ball well and walking a lot.

2:15

Let's be real, he would start out taking one of O'Neill or Bader's jobs, probably O'Neill.

If Fowler is a league average hitter again I think he'll keep getting playing time this year. If he struggles to start out, they might go triple-young very quickly.

And Bader is never a lock to hit well enough that the team is comfortable using him, even if I think that's short-sighted.

2:16

I'd be using Bader as much as possible, because it's SUPER valuable to have defense that good. If he can develop into a league average bat he's Kevin Kiermaier.

Dogged

2:16

What is your take on the failed Joc-Stripling-Rengifo deal? Simple as the Dodgers were making a bad deal? I guess more specifically, why did they value Rengifo so high and what are your expectations for him this year and beyond?

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