JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/20

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Ben Clemens

2:17

I'm still quite puzzled by it. The mystery prospect going the other way presumably made it look better, but I thought the Dodgers were giving up too much.

It's no secret that I like Stripling, but I think Joc is a borderline everyday guy too.

The payroll issue is real, and Rengifo is the kind of guy the Dodgers like acquiring.

2:18

Someone in a past chat (sorry, I forget who!) pointed out that he fits that Turner/Taylor mold of acquisition.

2:19

But yeah, I'm not that high on Rengifo and I don't think he'll get enough run with the Angels to be interesting unless La Stella and Fletcher are just truly awful.

I don't know why Arte pulled out but I think that cost the Angels.

JoshR

2:19

Hi Ben. Not much talk about how the Reds defense could sink them. Thinking particularly about Moustakas and Castellanos. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Uh yeah, it's certainly an issue. I'd be more worried about Castellanos than Moustakas, honestly.

Maybe Moustakas can't actually handle second base, but he didn't look completely at sea when he tried on the Brewers. He moved off the position b/c of Hiura, not b/c he couldn't handle it.

2:21

The Reds outfield defense will be a story to watch. Winker is Castellanian out there

Akiyama is a wild card.

They luckily have a tiny outfield

They've played quite literally Shin-Soo Choo in center before.

But it's the thing I'd be most worried about as a Reds fan.

Well, that and whether Votto's decline is real, because that would be super sad.

Nathan

2:21

Better keeper to pair with a round 20 J. Luzardo. A. Meadows in the 15th rd. J. McNeil in the 18th. J. Baez in the 7th or O. Mercado in the 25th?

Ben Clemens

2:22

So, I'm getting back into fantasy this year (took a year off), but I am at best sketchy and at worst completely making it up when it comes to keeper leagues.

My intuition would just be to take Javy and deal with the higher draft pick lost, b/c I'm concerned with the way the Rays are gonna handle their outfield situation.

2:23

But you could convince me of McNeil as well

I'm kinda down on Mercado

Jerome

2:23

In your excellent piece last week on which teams are helped and hurt by the Base Runs translation of team WAR, you didn't mention the A's. They seem to be a team hurt by the translation. Do you have thoughts on why? Is it because of their low OBP (ironic, huh)? Also, how does Base Runs account for team defense and especially the compounding effects a good defense has on pitcher results?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Haha their OBP matters some, for sure. I need to do some more digging into the defense side, but I believe those are already feeding ERA's for pitchers who have signed.

This might be more of a question for Dan

2:25

Because I am more or less trying to pick at these engines from the outside

Rather than building them

Robber

2:25

Thinking about Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who seem to be great at player development, what can an organization like Driveline do for players that a team can't?

Ben Clemens

2:25

This is all speculation, of course, but my thinking is that having a new voice is really useful.

2:26

When I've gotten into a rut in work in the past, I've often found that I get out of it by doing something out of the ordinary.

Picking some silly fight with my boss (not meg, to be clear)

Going and doing a new thing that I'm not good at

Just, something that changes my routine significantly

Wouldn't shock me if that's what is going on with a lot of people finding success at Driveline even when their teams know what they're doing.

2:27

Changing up your headspace is valuable.

Bad Bill

2:27

To pick up where Jay left off and also on where you're going with Carlson/Bader, maybe the Mets would be interested in trading for Bader. But trades have to work for both teams. What do the Mets have, and what are they willing to part with, that the Cardinals would want to get in such a trade?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Well, the Mets were rumored to be interested in Bader last year for Zack Wheeler.

So I do think they would trade for him.

2:29

The cost is interesting; the Cardinals aren't really in the market for a Matz or Lugo type, I don't think, but they would like major league ready guys.

Would they trade Brandon Nimmo for Bader? I doubt it

2:30

But would the Cardinals be interested in, I dunno, Dom Smith? Definitely not.

And I really doubt the Cards are interested in prospects at this point, they cleared out a ton of their major league outfield depth already.

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