JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/23/26

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. Let's just get started, as I'm sure there are many fun opening day questions to answer and right now, I'm not writing anything so I'm at full focus

Guest

2:01

If you're GM of the Tigers, do you put McGonigle on the opening day roster, or wait a few weeks to manipulate his service time?

Ben Clemens

2:02

put him on the opening day roster

the value of that service time manipulation is down with the various incentives (both making it easier for the player to recoup the PT and giving the team bonuses if they start the player up)

2:03

it's a contingent thing, to me: in the worlds where McGonigle ends up being the kind of player worth doing something underhanded to get extra service time out of, you a)probably won't get it b)could have gotten a draft pick if you weren't so shady

Oaktown Blues

2:03

How much credence can I give improved statcast metrics in Spring training? The samples are small, but are at least approaching the threshold of significance for statcast (which IIRC is ~50 BBE). For example, Jacob Wilson: avg EV up from 84.6 to 89.1, HH% up from 24.7% to 41.5% in 41 BBE. Significant or just noise?

Ben Clemens

2:04

sadly, noise. I think particularyl this year, the level of competition was really uneven thanks to WBC. But also, I think the raw elemental stats (pitch velocity, bat speed) are worth caring about, but the ones that involve batter/pitcher interaction are just too noisy in a sping sample

like, it's not worth 0. but it's not worth much

2:06

honestly, though, we're about to get real games. the fun is in seeing what happens

War2D2

2:06

Hey Ben! I just got back from Scottsdale and had a nice time even though the temps were anywhere from 10° to 30° hotter than I’ve experienced in the past. I highly recommend it. Have you ever been? If so, where would you rank the various venues? For me it’s Salt River and then a multi-way tie for second, with the Angels’ godawful stadium in dead last.

Ben Clemens

2:06

yeah Salt River by a mile

2:07

I don't even have a ranking of the second-tier ones. I've been to a few and they kinda slip through my memory like grains of sand. Whereas the whole Salt River complex rocks and I've been back multiple times

Mr Redlegs

2:07

Finished the Tainted Cup this weekend. Absolutely loved it. Thanks for the recommendation

Ben Clemens

2:07

amazing, glad you liekd it

bosoxforlife

2:07

I hope you have seen Max Clark's WTF reaction to the 102.4 mph heater Seth Hernandez zipped past him the other day. It was hilarious.

Ben Clemens

2:07

concur

check this out

Hernandez is fresh out of high school and firing bullets

Look At This Sotograph

2:07

How much does the challenge system kill Patrick Bailey's value? 2nd part to the question: I see ABS changing the catcher position to focus more on hitting and throwing out baserunners, as framing becomes less valuable. Do you think this is how it will play out?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I don't know, but I think that assuming much change is probably not a good plan. There are a LOT of pitches per game. There won't be that many challenges per game. Maybe Bailey will be better at challenging, too. He sure seems to know where the strike zone is. I think I'd say that it's a)likely to be a small effect b)something we just won't know until we calculate it

2:09

hoenstly, though, I'm not going to bother to have a pre-formed opinion of what will happen, becuase I'm going to get to find out, and that's fun

I'm planning on doing a lot of research on challenges this year, and coming into it without preconceived notions is my plan

Oaktown Blues

2:09

As a follow up, do you know if bat tracking metrics for spring training are available anywhere? I agree that those would be more reliable but I just can't find them

Ben Clemens

2:10

i have legit no idea how to find them

Alec

2:10

how concerned are you about a handful of higher-rated prospects getting demotions to start the year? Crews and Klassen starting in AAA, and Dollander starting in Colorado's bullpen?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I'm not quite sure what concerned means here but I'm pretty sure that these three, at least, make sense

2:11

the Dylan Crews arc is definitely the scariest of these. Unless you want to say that Dollander's arc is the scariest because it includes 'pitcher for rockies'

drplantwrench

2:12

this is the worst ive felt about the angels upcoming season in probably the last 20-30 years. do you have a wild take that might make the angels more watchable?

Ben Clemens

2:12

it's not gonna be about the wins, but um.... maybe this will be the year for Jo Adell?

this time is different (tm)

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:13

Under what circumstances would a team give an Ondrej Satoria (or similar skill set) a real shot to make a team? We know from multiple WBCs and position player pitching that being under the bat speed is a real thing.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I basically think it would never happen. There are guys like that with better command, or slightly better stuff, etc. I think that a lot of the Satoria magic is that it's spring

seriously, if you look at the command values from my article on WBC pitch modeling today, everyone's command is abysmal in spring

so he stands out much more

Baseball learner

2:14

The USA offense in the WBC disappointed relative to its billing. Some pundits seem to think this has to do with a lack of good fun energy (which was definitely there). To me it looked like small sample theater plus maybe a lack of walks and a ditching of the catcher who hit 60 home runs last year from the lineup. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:14

small sample, and also a lack of walks is not good in a tournament where no one has command

the catcher thing is tricky. I agree that DeRosa was overreacting to small samples in benching Raleigh but also, Raleigh was a big part of the team not hitting

2:15

I'm not saying vibe-wise or anything, I would never presume to know what it's like inside that clubhouse. But just on-field results wise, he was putrid when he played. I probably would have stuck with him but I see where DeRosa was coming from at least a little

Jeremy

2:15

I hate the new checked swing rule that's going to be trialed in the minors this year. From the sound of it, lots of partial swings that currently count as swings will become checked swings. What are your thoughts on this rule? How much is it likely to benefit batters?

Ben Clemens

2:15

i have no clue how much it will benefit batters. But also, like, it should

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