JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/23/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/23/26

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Ben Clemens

3:07

broadly mirrors mine

Guest

3:07

I personally hate the dead deal cap space trades that happen in the nba

Ben Clemens

3:07

yeah. I think there's a good argument that baseball is better for not having a cap/floor system, to be clear

3:08

I think it's GOOD to have league villains/end bosses

and I take bosoxforlife's points about team continuity. Salary cap sports just don't have that

but if you have, as your goal, making the Dodgers spend an amount of money that's closer to the rest of the league, and you don't care about anything else? well, there are ways to do it

didace

3:09

"it's kinda odd for a hedge fund titan or real estate guy or whatever to make tens of billions of dollars in their industry and then demand that major league players adhere to a salary cap" Don't non-sport unions accept salary caps as a matter of course by agreeing to wage scales? What makes baseball different?

Ben Clemens

3:09

a collectively bargained deal. nothing has to make anything different. but to be clear, the guys buying teams didn't have wage scales at their hedge funds. they either owned them, or got paid a percentage of their gains until they made enough money to start their own

bosoxforlife

3:10

I think the Red Sox threw $130 away on Ranger Suarez, not that he hasn't been a good pitcher, but that they have two very exciting young lefties with nowhere to pitch and Suarez is now blocking them.

Ben Clemens

3:10

I wrote the 1-15 rotation blurbs for positional power rankings that are coming out tomorrow, so I spent a lot of time considering Boston's rotation

3:11

I do agree that Suarez is currently blockign those guys, but I guess I'd say a few things. First, I think the lefty part is kinda irrelevant. I wouldn't feel different about Suarez if he were a righty with the same results. More importantly, though, I think that they're kind of making an investment in durability.

you can't think the odds of all of crochet, gray, and suarez being healthy by the end of September are THAT high

3:12

and you can't be that certain that both Tolle and Early will pan out. Neither of them might. one of them might get hurt

so I look at Boston's plan as satisfying the following constraints: maximize the odds of having a good playoff rotation while minimizing the odds of Tolle and Early languishing in the minors

3:13

I'm a fan of redundancies, particularly in places where volatility is likely. and I think the Red Sox ahve built their team that way. It looks weird on a depth chart, but after you take into accoutn how fragile pitchers are, I'm more into it

3:14

Especially considering Gray is gone after this year, I'm just having trouble seeing the extreme downside outcome here

and if there's any place you want too many options, it's the rotation

Alby

3:14

Just me, but I don't watch any of the capped sports because I don't get my jollies by reading endless articles about how GMs are going to build their teams under those restrictions. If baseball gets a cap, well, I have other things I can spend my time doing.

Ben Clemens

3:15

haha the funny thing is, people are always asking me for those articles!

but I agree with you. I think that writing about baseball is fun because so many strategies can work and because you can be an armchair GM without talking about the second apron, the split contract minimum, post-June-1 designated cuts, etc.

3:16

I'm sure we will adapt if this comes to pass, but I'm with you, analysis gets a little less exciting when a lot of it boils down to the cap rules

cool

1

Insert Witty Name Here

3:16

What are your thoughts on a hefty portion of our chat here (and in general nowdays) is about the financial aspect of the game rather than the game itself? It’s interesting and fun to debate, but it’s kinda weird. Like imagine if our own coworkers salary’s and contracts got discussed as much (although that actually might not be a bad thing…)

Ben Clemens

3:16

I don't like it!

I will probably not do any more of it once the season starts

baseball's freaking amazing

3:17

but I do think it'll be easier to talk about the game on the field after the regula rseason starts

EccentricATLFan

3:17

Since you mentioned writing the 1-15 rotation blurbs, how much rewriting is Strider's injury causing for the Braves' blurb?

Ben Clemens

3:17

not zero!

but not infinite given that we only lowered him from 159 projected IP to 149

Mr. Fister

3:18

Am I the only one who has this suspicious feeling that Misiorowski is going to string off a bunch 3.2IP, 4hits, 4BB, 4ER, 5K starts and then promptly find himself in the minors? I feel like the industry as a whole is being overly optimistic for a guy who historically AND currently can't throw strikes.

And don't take that the wrong way..... Misiorowski is exciting! I want to see him succeed. I just don't think it's likely to happen, and I feel like I'm in the ever-shrinking minority

Ben Clemens

3:19

I don't really feel that way. I'll be watching carefully, but I haven't seen a lot of evidence that he's going to suddenly start walking as many as he strikes out. Like, he can't currently throw strikes, you say, and it's true, double digit walk rate in ST. Also, 15K 5 BB

he's definitely extremely high variance for a top pitching prospect because his game is quite non-standard

can't find the zone is more live for him than your average starter, for sure

but I don't have a strong lean away from consensus here, I guess

bosoxforlife

3:19

The season is three days and Yoshida is still on the Red Sox and the Braves have lost their DH and most of the rotation, as Strider breaks again. Sandoval, Crawford and Yoshida should be able to get something in return. I am willing to see anything done to Yoshida off the roster.

Ben Clemens

3:20

makes sense to me. Maybe the Sox are still smarting from Sale-for-Grissom? Maybe the Braves and Sox both have no salary cap flex? I'm not quite sure, but I agree, this makes too much sense

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:20

Who ya got for most fWAR over the next 5 years - Skenes, Skubal, Crochet, Yamamoto, or mystery player?

Ben Clemens

3:20

I'll just take Skenes, age + workload reasons

3:21

my thinking is that SKubal is older, Crochet I at least wonder about the workload issues, Yamamoto will get innings limited b/c the Dodgers are just too good and want him healthy in October

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