JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/29/21

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, let's chat.

Greg

2:00

Who has a better chance of winning a World series in the next decade - Cubs or Pirates?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Oh, definitely the Cubs. They spend quite a bit more, and even if we think their fortunes aren't great today, that just matters a lot in the long run. The Pirates are going to have to prove that they're willing to supplement a core team with some spending before I start believing.

Greg

2:01

Prior to Mitch Keller's most recent start (and maybe still after) he has been the worst pitcher in MLB in ST. He has failed to take a step forward with his command and seems to be missing some of his bat missing ability that he at least had when he finished last year with 11 no-hit innings. How worried should Pirates fans be?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I wouldn't be terribly worried about his ST starts, b/c it's just not terribly indicative of regular season performance. For what it's worth, his zone rate in spring training is higher than it was last year, and his velo looks roughly unchnaged

I'm as interested in Keller as I was at the end of last season -- which is to say I think he's intriguing but high-risk

BettsBellingerCaruso

2:03

Is there a better description of a player's physique as someone on reddit saying Max Muncy looks like a groomsman at every midwestern wedding?

Ben Clemens

2:04

As an attender of many midwestern weddings, that seems perfect

Matt Damon

2:04

MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens

2:04

Getting it early this year! I love it

Derek

2:04

Are FG positional power rankings assignments given at random? If so, which position were you most hoping to get?

Ben Clemens

2:05

They're assigned -- I dunno if it's random or not, but I was really hoping for shortstop and got it

Pitching is a lot of work, just because you need to look through so many names, but it's kinda fun too

Guest

2:05

Is there data to suggest that a prospect struggling in the majors is less likely to succeed long term than having success in the minors and only moving up then? Teams like the Indians sign guys like Cesar Hernandez to play 2B when 4 of their top 10 prospects are middle infielders.. if they know they're out of the hunt, does it statistically make any sense to promote them early?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I have yet to see any such data, but there's solid data (read: counting) that leaving your prospects down longer makes them cost less in the long run

and I think Cleveland is VERY interested in that research

I mean, many teams are

But they are too

Greg

2:06

Word on the street is you are a co-op board game fan. Best 2 player games for people new to the hobby? Looking for low barrier to entry and high replayability as key factors.

Ben Clemens

2:07

This is a good game as either 2 or 4, but Forbidden Island. My wife and I also really enjoy Aeon's End, and the Marvel game (Legendary) is a good one if you're into marvel comics

If you're more the word game type, Letter Jam is really replayable and quite fun

Jason

2:07

The A's bullpen is projected to pitch the 10th most innings with the 11th best FIP (10th ERA) and yet are 20th in WAR rankings. Why is that? I thought fWAR was FIP based.

Ben Clemens

2:07

It's also park-adjusted, which is my guess for why

Jason

2:08

All reports out of spring are that Jed Lowrie is legitimately healthy. But the projection systems don't know that and just see a 37yo who hasn't played in two years. Would the 3rd year ZIPS from the end of 2018 be a better forecast of his 2021 ability? Where can I find old 3 year ZIPS projections?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Your best bet might be Googling them, but I'm not sure that looking at what he did three years ago works all that well... he's been existing in the meantime, and not seeing live reps, and so on

2:09

I do agree that projection systems are going to struggle with him, but it's just going to be a really hard problem oerall

2:10

Oh sorry, misread this. I don't think Dan was releasing 3 year ZiPS in 2018, so I dunno where you'll be able to find those

Numpty

2:10

Hi Ben, what sort of value would there be to a two true outcome hitter who both walks and strikes out at a 50% rate?

Ben Clemens

2:11

The lazy way is to look at each one's linear weights, and they'd be an above average hitter based on that. In practice, a player like that is going to make linear weights weird, but I think they'd still be valuable. Slot them at leadoff, and be willing to pinch hit for them with runners on late

Guest

2:11

Top 3 candidates for signing extensions by Opening Day? How many do you think we'll see overall? Seems like that domain is moving a bit slower than usual this year

Ben Clemens

2:12

I think Lindor has to be #1; the leaked report that he and Cohen were having dinner and talking extension feels like a setup

After that, I'm not really sure, I'd rather just wait a few days and find out, you know?

BettsBellingerCaruso

2:13

Which team's rotation do you think will perform over the FG projections?

or alternatively, which teams do you think have the highest gap between the 25th & 75th percentile projections?

Has to be the Yankees or the Braves right?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Yeah I think that the Yankees have to be number 1 for the second question

Along with the Red Sox, who are also very injury-risky

2:15

The Braves are interesting as a choice, but I'm pretty down on Bryse Wilson so I don't actually think their upside is as high as you might first think upon looking

Another choice would be the Mets, b/c Carrasco and Syndergaard are very volatile

Alejandro The Great

2:15

Captain Kirk doesn't fit his style, this is the consensus choice in many circles I've interacted with at this point.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Ooh, I like that. I agree that Captain Kirk isn't all that good; what's captain-ish about him?

He's named Kirk, we get it

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