JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/30/20

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. Just going to give the queue a few minutes to fill up while I make some lunch.

2:03

In the meantime, we have a lot of stuff on the site today. On the most serious possible note, we are asking for all of your help: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-update-were-asking-for-your-he...

2:04

And on a less serious note, I watched a bunch of baseball to see how close people stand to each other:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/imagining-a-socially-distanced-baseball/

2:10

Back, and let's go

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:10

What's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Today, some leftovers from last night (beans, plus some veggies, and we added chicken skewers to the mix for some protein).

2:11

I've been appreciating lunch a lot more of late, now that my wife and I are both always home.

2:12

I used to just either make a lazy sandwich, eat a granola bar, or go get food. Been trying to get a little fancier now

Jason N

2:12

After reading the big update, I went online to buy a membership. Can you ask someone to add an option where I don’t auto-renew?

Ben Clemens

2:13

There's an option in there, I believe.

Let me see if I can dig it up really quickly.

2:14

So:

2:15

Weirdly I can't figure out how to paste something into here, because I'm bad at technology

But after you sign up, you can go to "Membership" at the top-right dropdown of the page.

Then click away and back onto the "Membership" tab

2:16

I, uh, don't know why that is, I'll ask somebody about it.

And there's an auto-renew toggle.

It should look like this:

https://imgur.com/a/G2buafg

Guest

2:17

Do you choose your own favorite team in MLB The Show? Or do you choose a different team?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I haven't played the show, but in OOTP, I tend to pick the Cardinals or a team that's really wild, like the Brewers (crazy trades!) or the Rays (just crazy in general) or a rebuilding team.

2:18

I'm totally fine playing as my favorite team, but it does come with a blind spot.

Namely, there are players I think are awesome, and I'm kind of emotionally invested in. If the game says they're bad, I sometimes hang onto them too long anyway

David

2:19

Over or under 55% chance of the season being canceled? Also- Syndergaard getting tj surgery puts the Mets behind the Phillies as well as Braves and Nats?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Ugh, sadly I'd take the over. Not that I feel good about it.

I hope that's wrong, but it feels like getting back to normal in a reasonable time for the season is going to be really hard.

2:20

Maybe there's enough time for a weird abbreviated season or a mega-playoffs or something like that, but they canceled the Olympics (admittedly that's a much bigger logistical issue).

Doesn't give me a lot of hope that we can get baseball going again by July

yabbadabba

2:21

Assuming baseball returns sometime - presumably all players come back less good than otherwise. What sorts of teams relatively benefit / suffer from that? Rebuilding teams seem like they would suffer most from lost development time, but veteran teams also suffer from aging.

Ben Clemens

2:21

I've been trying to work out how I could write about this in a reasonable way.

Rather than, you know, just making stuff up wildly, which is my normal method.

2:22

My sense is that the development time doesn't hurt as much as aging, and players who aren't yet in the majors aren't getting service time (which seems reasonable).

2:23

So if you had to pick between losing a year of service time for the players you have in the majors and a year of age for your good veterans, or just having your prospects develop more slowly, I think I'd take the latter.

2:24

If you're the Orioles, you can't be happy that your prospects don't have a minor league season, but if you're the Astros, Verlander and Greinke got a year older and everyone else got a year closer to free agency. That's gotta sting.

This assumes that baseball doesn't come back this year; if it does, I think it's close to a wash.

Goofer

2:25

Thoughts on whether Kwang Kim makes the Cards rotation?

Ben Clemens

2:25

It's a tricky rotation to crack, because they have a lot of good-enough arms.

But even having said that, I think he'll make it.

2:26

I don't exactly know how they'll handle Martinez and Wainwright, those guys are in tough situations.

Martinez because he's sooooo valuable as a starter but it's unclear how stretched out he is after hte hpast two years.

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