JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/30/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/30/20

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Ben Clemens

2:57

His groundball rate is still way too high for my liking, and I'm not sure he can really play third.

2:58

So those are things that limit his upside for me, but I think he's about as good of a hitter as Smoak overall.

But from a quick look at ADP boards, Smoak is going 100 picks later.

I guess I don't have a great OBP league ADP up, but yeah, that's my quick take.

T

2:59

What day would you say would be most possible for baseball to start or do you think it may be completely cancelled?

Ben Clemens

2:59

Hm

3:00

If they started the season August 1 and ended it November 30, with a neutral site World Series and potentially ALCS/NLCS, that would be three months of baseball?

regular season, that is

Could they squeeze 81 games into 92 days? Yeah, I think so.

Short season,b ut like, sure?

3:01

So August 1st is one deadline?

I need to give this more thought, though.

I'd previously suggested a mega-tournament of all 30 teams to ensure that there are at least some playoffs.

And you can do that in a shorter timeframe, though it'd play havoc with TV schedules.

SteveL

3:01

Hi Ben. I just jumped on and started reading. Believe it or not I just this morning made that NY Times No Knead Bread! It's terrific, and really easy.

Ben Clemens

3:02

Nice! Well next time I go to the store I plan on buying the ingredients, because making bread does sound pretty fun.

Always love when I learn something in a chat, which is pretty much every chat.

True story, one of the things I was most excited about when I started full-time here is that I would get my own chat.

3:03

Now, I didn't expect that chat to mostly take place with all of my readers locked in their homes.

3:04

But it's been a blast.

eloquentboot

3:05

Ben, you're an A+ lad. We're all proud of you, and hope you're doing well. For an actual question, what kind of teams would you imagine would be hurt most by a shortened season? Some teams that spring to my mind immediately would be teams like the Indians, who have terrific top end talent, but may not have depth to deal with a large amount of doubleheaders.

Ben Clemens

3:06

Thank you! I'm doing alright. I think that this shelter in place world is putting a lot of stress on all of us, but I'm fortunate enough to not be in any pressing danger from the effects of this.

3:07

But not everyone is as fortunate, and small businesses like FG are especially vulnerable, of course.

But yeah I hope everyone is doing well in this trying time.

Dan Szymborski wrote about this question last week:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-do-the-playoff-odds-change-in-a-s...

Hm two weeks ago actually.

The big losers are favorites.

3:08

That makes a lot of sense to me; I was actually in the process of writing the same article before I saw that Dan was using ZiPS to do it.

So teams that were near-playoff-locks are the most affected.

3:09

The Indians are caught between two effects.

One is like you said, yeah, no depth.

But on the other hand, the Twins are way better than them I think, and now there's a better chance of just spiking a hot streak or Minny cold streak.

boobytuesday

3:09

Taking a poll: If I draft Luis Severino and DL him all year just so I can keep him for 2021 and beyond, is it: A) a decent strategy, or B) a dick move?

Ben Clemens

3:09

Oh I think that's totally fine.

I don't see it as being different from taking a prospect or something.

3:10

You get to IL him, which is nice, of course.

But it's just a risk/reward deal; you're wasting a draft pick in exchange for value next year. Don't see any reason why that would be uncool.

metsindc

3:11

Love the site, bought my membership today.

Ben Clemens

3:11

Thank you! We all sincerely appreciate it.

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