JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/30/26

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Ben Clemens

2:19

and then teams will just say 'our hitters/catchers/pitchers have fallible vision because of the way the human eye works, so let's just make sure we get teh call right in really important spots'

Oaktown Blues

2:19

I just find it really hard to believe that I wouldn't like 100% robo calls

Ben Clemens

2:19

it's likely that it will eventually work. the problem in the minors, when they tested it, was the speed of processing and likelihood of error

2:20

like, think about the delay between a hitter challenging and us getting the call. You wouldn't want that on every pitch, right?

Guest

2:20

I gotta say, I hate that there's any strategy / game theory involved in the challenge system. I just want the calls to be right. We have the tech, let's just get them all right.

Ben Clemens

2:21

I generally agree with this. I think that coming at it from a tennis perspective, I want it to correct super bad calls, make sure that important calls are right, but I actually do like the strike zone being somewhat probabilistic

I guess I'd say that if the technology could actually perfectly call balls and strikes instantaneously, with no post-processing at all necessary, I think we could make this work. And probably eventually that will happen

2:22

but I think that the challenge system is a great gateway

and also that it's super fun in person

Insert Witty Name Here

2:22

You know that book The Catcher was a Spy? Your dad was totally a spy.

Ben Clemens

2:22

not the first time I've heard that, haha

George

2:22

ABS question: It feels like we're talking a lot about the rate of wins/losses when we should be talking about something like run value over expected? Even savant is showing net-challenges over expected as the "leaderboards" which I think gets away from the teams' goal of adding runs not challenge wins.

Ben Clemens

2:22

I would say.... stay tuned for an article about how I, Ben Clemens, think about ABS challenge success

2:23

if I tell you who the best challenger is based on their win/loss record in challenges, you have my permission to follow me around booing me for the rest of my life

Robo umps

2:23

I’ve watched tons of games with robo umps and they just weren’t as accurate as the human/challenge system. It’s like saying our political system would be better with a dictator vs executive, legislative and judicial branches having checks and balances

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:23

The all-robot zone in the minors also gave a bunch of high curveballs and backdoor sliders as strikes in ways that pitchers were starting to game.

Ben Clemens

2:23

yeah I guess like, this'll get fixed

small e

2:23

i've already heard people getting annoyed by the "it grazed the zone by 1 seam" overturns which i think is my biggest personal annoyance with full-ABS. any time you rely on technology you have to draw a precise hard line somewhere and it's gonna annoy people wherever it is

Ben Clemens

2:23

this too

but I do not think that full ABS is ready for primetime yet

and extensive tests by the league in the minors seemed to say the same thing

Reds Enjoyer

2:24

I, for one, am glad that Wilyer Abreu is out of my stadium. Sox will be fine (Early looked really good yesterday). My question: does Eugenio Suarez have the most "that's why we signed this guy" moment of the season so far? One swing won the Redlegs the game yesterday.

Ben Clemens

2:24

Brendan Donovan being one of the best hitters on the Mariners, and Murakami with three homers and a 30% walk rate ,also up there

Nate

2:24

Spit balling as an Astros fan...how bout something like Javier and Paredes (and maybe a prospect like Matthews) for Durran and Yoshida? Money matches almost perfectly the next two years...and we could even use Yoshida in LF at the moment

Ben Clemens

2:25

I mean, the awkward part about this is that the Sox went ahead and got an entire starting infield

so now they'd be crowding Durbin out

but yeah, I do think this is broadly in the realm of fair

Oaktown Blues

2:25

How is it possible that full ABS is less accurate? They talk about checks and balances but why would you need a check on a totally accurate system?

Ben Clemens

2:25

errors, basically

2:26

it didn't go great when they tested it

bosoxforlife

2:26

I am all for more aggressive third base coaches. For years Carlos Febles held up every runner at 3rd for the Red Sox even with 2 outs and a .220 hitter coming up. He was too timid for fear of being wrong. Even on doubtful plays the odds on a poor throw are far better than expecting a weak hitter to deliver.

Ben Clemens

2:26

yeah. I think that's generally the case. Russell Carleton has written some good stuff about how base coaches aren't aggressive enough

but I think the bigger issue is that they aren't context aware

like you said, bad hitter coming up next two outs

2:27

well, you need to have a laissez-faire attitude

no outs? be careful

there aren't enough sends overall. But the Lindor send was down two, none out

you need to be sure it'll work. there's no hitter to expect to deliver. another runner needs to score

Sun Devilish

2:27

Going back to 2017 the Brewers have a +676 run differential over 1,360 games (+0.50 R/G). Since Pat Murphy took over they are at +327 runs in 327 games, easy math. Projected Standings has them down for +9 runs over their next 159 games. That seems a lot closer to a floor than any kind of reasonable median given their recent and long term demonstrated performance, no?

Ben Clemens

2:27

oh boy

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