JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/9/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/9/20

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Mets

2:34

Who emerges in the back end of the Mets rotation as a huge success? Wacha/Porcello/matz? And who’s toast?

Ben Clemens

2:34

It's so weird to see all the optimism around Wacha this spring.

He was an anchor last year.

Like, the kind that drags you down, not the kind that stabilizes you.

2:35

He has basically one good pitch at this point I think, the changeup

Now admittedly, it's a really good pitch!

But his curve and cutter are minus-minus (if that's a thing), which puts a lot of pressure on a just okay fastball

I'm willing to believe in Matz and Porcello both.

2:36

Both of them are way overqualified as a fifth starter and above average as a fourth starter.

I'd take Porcello over Matz because I'm kind of in on his game in Citi

2:37

And I'll say Wacha flames out, with some chance he becomes a decent reliever because he can get lefties and righties out, with short stints making his fastball play up.

Kiper

2:37

What Player on your board is Overrated/underrated the most?

Ben Clemens

2:38

This is kind of a weird take, but I think Yelich is being overrated. He was the most expensive player in my auction yesterday, and I don't think that really makes sense.

But that's only at the very top end, in terms of being overrated.

2:39

Below that I think that Gleyber is more of a risk to be just alright than people think.

2:40

In terms of underrated, I really do like Kim, though that's a deeper league find. I thought Gerrit Cole was a bit low in my league, though it doesn't look like he is overall. And lastly, Kyle Tucker! Love him, think he could easily just take right field over and run with it.

Joseph

2:40

Do you think there’s a good chance Lindblom can have a big impact in the brewers rotation. A tick above major league average? How do you see it shaping up

Ben Clemens

2:41

Yeah that sounds right. I haven't really kept track of him in spring training but offhand teh strikeouts and walks look fine.

Also Ben

2:42

Do you know pitchers who tunnel better able to face batters more times through the order in general?

Ben Clemens

2:42

It's a reasonable theory. That said, I haven't seen any compelling evidence that it's the case.

Tunneling is phenomenally hard to quantify, which makes studying something like that hard.

2:43

I have had a lot of trouble even working out a question like 'do pitchers who vary pitch sequencing more do better a third time through'

And tunneling adds layers of difficulty on top of that.

Sanford

2:43

Thanks for chatting, Ben. Do you think there's room for Pete Alonso to hit a higher ceiling than the ~5 WAR he put up last year? Seems like the best case scenario for a first baseman who's not a Gold Glover and/or doesn't have Miguel Cabrera's hit tool

Ben Clemens

2:44

I think that's probably roughly the ceiling. He's never going to be a more walks than strikeouts guy, I don't think, which means he can't go the Votto route.

That just leaves the Cabrera/Pujols route, and I don't think he's really that guy.

2:45

5 WAR is awesome! But it's hard to have a dingers-and-K's first baseman with a 7 WAR season or something stupid.

Thor

2:45

Ok- he seems to look good and healthy- does he remind everyone this year that he is not just a #2 and put together an ace like year?

Ben Clemens

2:45

Eh. Maybe! But I have had enough of the Thor experience to think that he's probably just a good #2

Which is totally fine, and a great outcome, and he's really fun to watch and so on.

But it just never seems to all add up, and I'm also a little worried about the loss of slider velocity last year.

2:46

He's talked about trying to get the slider back faster again but it's a little worrisome how variable it's been.

Beeks

2:46

How excited should I be as a Brewers fan regarding the Yelich extension and the team's future??

Ben Clemens

2:46

Oh, tremendously!

It's such a good sign.

Will the deal work out? I'm not sure.

But I think it goes a long way towards ensuring that the Brewers keep trying.

2:47

And to their extreme credit, they've been very consistent in always trying to be good

I don't always agree with the tactics they use, like I think that they had some weird free agency targets this year.

2:48

But I'm not remotely worried that they're going to throw in the towel or plead poor or anything.

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