JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/9/26

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Sir Nerdlington

2:39

How soon until I can believe my kid's breakout is real? He's hitting .571 in their three high school scrimmages so I should expect that to hold for the season, right?

Ben Clemens

2:40

depends. did you put a blast sensor on his bat to check out his barrel rate?

if you did, it's real. if you didn't, it's fake, because you can only succeed by putting sensors on bats

Fin

2:40

What is Marcelo Mayer's 90th percentile outcome? Willy Adames? Is there a real (say, 25% or greater) chance that the issues with breaking balls sink him and he peaks as a defense-first utility guy?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I don't have a good sense for percentile outcomes and ceilings and stuff

it's just not the way I perceive baseball, I don't think I'm very accurate at judging that

2:41

that said, is there a 25% chance that he peaks as a defense-first utility guy? I mean, of course there is

2:42

like, he didn't tear up Triple-A in 2025, he didn't tear up Double-A in 2023, he missed half of 2024 and hwile he was amazing, a lot of it came down to a .367 BABIP that he just does not have the batted ball profile to back up

it's really hard to be a great major league hitter. there's no shame in failing, even for top prospects

One thing I really like about his profile is that the defense gives him a really nice floor and a while to figure things out. He can help the big league team out even if he's not hitting

2:43

but if we're being rational, Bayesian actors here, the odds of it not working out are appreciable

Not Ben Clemens

2:43

How much interaction occurs between people like yourself as third-party evaluators and Major League Orgs? You hear about teams coordinating with the Drivelines of the baseball world, do you ever receive questions, offers, etc from a scouting or valuation standpoint directly from MLB front offices or agents at Fangraphs?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I try to cultivate a network of people I'm friendly with and would love to share info both ways

2:44

It helps most during trade value time, because I do really lean on my friends and acquaintances on the team side for sanity checks, and frequently for debates about players I'm high ro low on

aside from that, there are a few guys I keep up with more frequently, and those tend towards bouncing non-player-specific ideas off of each other

2:45

like, I'm not gonna go ask them whether they think x player's fastball is mis-evaluated by our model. That's kinda weird. But we might talk about dollars-per-war frameworks or how much money might get spent in free agency or that kind of thing

Mike Lommler

2:45

I've used a couple forms of machine learning in the ecological sciences. Cool stuff and quite useful for predictive-type work, but one of my complaints is that they are often a bit of a black box when it comes to explaining "why" something may be happening.

The "why" is also an issue with any sort of model with too many inputs, though.

Ben Clemens

2:45

Yeah, I concur

I think that's why the pitching models are useful as numbers and yet aren't driving articles as much as you'd think for something so transformative on the data front

2:46

the results are a lot more interesting with a why, basically

drobber

2:46

Have you ever analyzed hitting performance vs quality of pitcher? I know that sounds basic, but I really mean: I've wondered if there are players who hit relatively the same against all pitchers (regardless of how good they are) vs hitters who are completely hopeless against "good" pitching but mash against "bad" pitching.

I think this would be trackable in minor league performance and really influence how you see players' ceilings (and, in the majors, would definitely influence lineup strategy).

Ben Clemens

2:46

Here's something Davy did about it

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nobody-actually-hits-good-pitching/

2:47

I feel like I did something about this with Tyler O'Neill as my example in the apst, too

though I can't find it

I'd basically say that the sample size means it's really hard to say anything about it, and when you do some kind of split half validation the numbers say 'this is not really a real skill'

EccentricATLFan

2:47

Perfect solution for how the Braves can use the Profar money: help lure former A's top draft pick Kyler Murray to Atlanta. Braves get an additional outfielder, Falcons get a QB, Murray needs a home city to play in...what could go wrong?

Ben Clemens

2:47

my Michael Penix Jr. dynasty shares are screaming at you

2:48

but I love the idea of bringing Kyler back into the two-way fold so I'm back in

EccentricATLFan

2:48

Just want to point out that Houston's minors signing of Steven Okert has to be one of the best bargains of last offseason by getting a generic-y Quad-A guy and making his slider a demon to face. Not only did that pitch have xwOBA of only .206 against with a 40.7% whiff rate (including one of the best Z-Contact% among sliders generally), but PitchingBot Visualizer shows that it was above average in Danger Miss%, Waste Miss%, and Squandered% with better than average command.

Ben Clemens

2:48

oh for sure. really nice one

bosoxforlife

2:48

It is not news that the Red Sox have a glut of outfielders and they also have an even greater glut of potential starters and no left hand middle relievers. At this point it appears as if Oviedo has the inside track to the fifth starter spot. Can you see a scenario in which Early and Tolle are used in this role?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I think so, but I think it'd be an anti-fragility kind of setup from Boston's standpoint. As in, they plan on a pitcher getting hurt and just don't know which one. So they run one of their good starters as a multi-inning reliever in the bigs to get him a little time and keep him at least somewhat stretched out, while planning on the rotation clicking into place iwth the first elbow twinge

Old Timey Baseball

2:49

Your "plant one of those dudes at 1B" take above got me wondering about the modern player, and how many poor-to-middling corner outfielders and 2Bs in today's game would be dominant defenders in Teddy Ballgame's time, just because of superior athleticism.

Ben Clemens

2:49

my guess: lots

they'd just cover more ground

guys are freak athletes these days, and they spend probably twice as much aggregate time drilling because sports are just more professionalized

2:50

now, bring thoes old dudes to the present and let them train for a decade and I don't think that'd happen

okay, topic change for me because I had this written down and forgot to ask last week

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat