JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/10/23

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. Today is going to be a fast and furious one hour of chatting, so let's get right into some questions. A quick reminder: not very much baseball has been played this year, so a lot of my answers will be 'it's too soon to say'.

Erik

2:01

Is this the Wander Franco breakout season, or is this a Wander Franco who's faced the Tigers, Nationals and A's? Some clear parallels to Vlad Jr., who took off in his third season after debuting very young and producing a pair of good but not elite seasons at the plate, but I don't want to get ahead of myself.

Ben Clemens

2:02

I hope so! I don't think Vlad Jr. is a reasonable bat comparison to Franco, he's more of a hit tool over power kind of guy while Vlad was hit plus power, but there's a reason that projection systems and analysts have been so high on Franco's potential

His bat control is so excellent that he can be a great hitter with average power, and he also plays a premium defensive position

comish4lif

2:02

12 team NL only, Francisco Alvarez has been called up. Who do you drop? Alvarez, Rodolfo Castro (playing more with Cruz injury) or Ezekial (slow start) Tovar?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I'd probably go Castro, but I think you have to give some thought to dropping Alvarez even though he's been called up. He's in a weird backup catcher/not quite DH role, which I don't love. The reason to keep him would be if you're not starting any of these guys very frequently, b/c he has the highest upside. I still really like Tovar's potential in Coors

The Pirate Parrot

2:03

Odds the pirates still win the world series despite losing oneil cruz?

Ben Clemens

2:03

About the same as before, sadly

Guest

2:04

How significant are stats like oswing% at this point? Trying to gauge how excited I should be about Nolan Gorman's phenomenal discipline this year

Ben Clemens

2:05

I don't have a strong rule for you here, but here's a nice check: look at Gorman's performance last year sliced up into seven-game sets (that's how many games he's played this year)

And slice it up by o-swing, obviously

2:06

This last seven-game set is a lower O-Swing than any seven-game set last year. Seems like he's doing something different

Pumpsie Green

2:06

Has Kris Bubic turned a corner? His stuff+ is looking good. Has he pitched enough for those numbers to stabilize?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I don't know how stuff+ stabilization works, or stuff-based metrics in general, and it's tough to figure it out exactly without a nice daily history of it, which I don't have. Maybe I'll look at this problem more if i can get the data split up that way. For now I'd just say this: his stuff undoubtedly looks better this year. If he comes out in his next few starts and continues to have good stuff, you have to start discounting his projections, b/c he's a different pitcher

2:08

I just don't have a good answer for you on when you should believe these things stabilizing

YardGoat

2:08

Oneil Cruz :(

Ben Clemens

2:08

Booooooo, yeah

Guest

2:08

Alek Thomas -- underlying metrics look fantastic, true breakout ahead?!

Ben Clemens

2:08

I sure hope so. Alek Thomas is a fun player, I love super-speedy outfielders

2:08

FanGraphs playoff odds now say the Rays are the clear favorite for the division. (46.1% vs Yankees at 32%) Is that a change in what the projections think about the team, or just their lead in the division?

Ben Clemens

2:09

It's a little bit of both. Before the season, we projected them for a .529 winning percentage with a .504 strength of schedule. Now, we're projecting them for a .543 win percentage with a .508 strength of schedule

2:10

So their remaining schedule is harder, but we think they're better. On the other hand, we project the Yankees for a .549 ROS W%, and the Jays for .537. Both of those are close enough to the Rays as to be a tossup, mathematically speaking. So the reason their division odds are higher than the other two is because of the three games they have in hand, but we also rate them more highly than we did before the season

Chris

2:10

Are you a believer in Trayce Thompson or Jayson Heyward?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Yes to both, I'd say

Not as all stars, but as valuable role players, particularly in some kind of semi-platoon situation

The Dodgers are so good at this

Guest

2:12

How much does the Rays start shift your priors for them?

Ben Clemens

2:12

A tiny bit. I'm not gonna shift any of my priors about teams very much after two weeks of games

2:12

Keston Hiura and Jo Adell were selected with back to back picks in the 1st round of the 2017 MLB Draft, and both have demolished minor league pitching while struggling at the major league level. Which of the two would you bet on having more career WAR going forward?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Gimme Adell, without strong conviction though

Guest

2:12

Jo Adell doing some damage in AAA -- could this be the makings of a post-hype breakout for the once heralded prospect?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Right, this is why I'm taking Adell. We've had more data points to say that Hiura's plan of attack isn't working in the majors

Whereas Hiura has twice the PA's in the majors

2:14

The thing that makes me less sure about this is that Hiura has had more good stretches than Adell by a mile, but maybe I'm just a sucker for untested talent

Trev

2:14

It's been a couple seasons, thoughts on the zombie runner?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I love it

2:15

I know that's not a popular opinion, but I think the action it leads to is fun and that different rules in overtime are completely fine

I like the stress and tension of runners on base in tie games, and I get more of it as a result

2:16

I also think it's completely fine to change the rules between the regular season and postseason. Clearly, they're different. Other sports do that too, and no one argues that it's an abomination or anything. If anything, we want football overtime to be MORE different from regulation

Early Season Hopeful

2:16

Thoughts on the Bryson Scott (aka hitting machine) and should he be picked up over someone like Brendan Donovan?

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