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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/13/26

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Ben Clemens

2:12

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/randy-vasquez-is-ready-now/

that's pretty neat

Baseball learner

2:12

Yankees lose 5 out of 6 almost entirely because of the bats (and by very small margins). There is a voice in my head that says that good pitching is more consistent than good hitting which will always run hot-cold. But that can't make sense can it?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I don't think it actually works that way, but only b/c of the portfolio effect. You get nine different hitters on your team, and they slump/get hot in mostly uncorrelated ways

mike

2:13

Maybe those 4% of Twins fans were right? Nah....but it has at least been a nice week!

Kwanbelievable

2:13

Are you a believer in the Twins yet? FG preseason playoff odds were more bullish on them than anybody but their own mothers, but 10% of the way into the season they're leading the AL (!!!)

Ben Clemens

2:13

I also thought the Twins were a lot better than popular consensus

but like, not a playoff team, to be clear

I just think that they have enough solid players that they were unlikely to put out truly horrid rosters

2:14

I don't think they're going to contend for the plyaoffs but they have more exciting players than expected, and I've been enjoying watching Twins games so far

TOOTBLAN

2:14

Biggest instantaneous mood swing from your team's play-by-play guy: "...and Harper takes a big turn around first he's trying for two"

Ben Clemens

2:14

can't argue with that at all

I feel like some of the best announcers let their opinoin of how good of a baserunning decision it is color their tone too

and that is very fun

Kwanbelievable

2:15

I believe bottom of the pack SS refers to whatever the Guardians have been rolling out for the last 3 years *gestures sadly at Arias/Rocchio/Schneemann*

Ben Clemens

2:15

hard to argue with that

it's funny that for seemingly forever, the Guardians had eight trillion shortstop prospets and kept shipping them off to play other positions

and now they have no shortstop

BobNuttingSucks

2:15

McGonigle looks great but Griffin looks like Cole Tucker reincarnated. Should Pirates fans be even a little worried?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I do not think so. To be fair, they probably shouldn't have been as hyped for immediate performance as they were

it's had

hard*

2:16

dude's a teenager. the major leagues are very good. his star is still bright

but when I was writing about Mason Miller I watched some video of Griffin against him. Just think about that. Mason Miller isn't exactly old, but he's been working for years learning to throw 100, command it, have a nasty slider, dominating pros who get paid a ton of money

2:17

now Konnor Griffin has to face him? when he's previously been facing minor leaguers and high schoolers?

give him a few months to adjust

mike

2:17

Does Mason Miller have a chance to break the top 50 in the trade value series? Normally I would think that any reliever couldn't come close, but between how much he was already worth in the trade market, combined with this incredible start, and I could see a case

Ben Clemens

2:18

I mean, I guess I'll consider him. But since I'm the one making the series, I'll level with you: it's not likely

we'll see. and it's obviously theoretically possible, and I'm truly very curious to see what teams think

but my initial opinion is that it probably won't happen

Scott

2:18

Most of the time when I see discussion around FIP vs ERA, it centers around how responsible pitchers are for the results of balls in play. But to me one of the most important differences, especially for relievers, is that a player’s FIP isn’t affected by any PAs where someone else is pitching. Do you agree that “adj ERA” where the run expectancy matrix is used to account for the game state when a pitcher enters or leaves a game would be useful? And, if so, would there be capacity at FG to create it?

Ben Clemens

2:18

100% and I've messed around with two things like this in the past: adjusted ERA and adjusted box scores

I should really find a way to put those in the lab

2:19

I definitely think that accounting for inherited runners in an intelligent way is a great idea

bosoxforlife

2:19

Early season shocks include Jordan Walker and Oneil Cruz. I know you aren't buying Cruz but I tend to think you are buying Walker. Am I right?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Lots of questions about Jordan Walker today, too many to include all of them, so I hcose this one so I can talk about two people at once

2:20

yeah, I'm sure we'll cover Walker before long, he's made a big change to plate discipline in a way that looks somewhat real to me. He's obviously not going to keep posting a .745 SLG, but "Hey Jordan you have the fastest swing in the majors, can you hit some fly balls?" has been obvious for years and he's finally doing it

2:21

the risk there is that the process could fall apart, like, it has before

but he's getting to good results via good process right now, and that's very exciting

2:22

I'm definitely a little less excited about Cruz, largely because a lot of what's going right is that he's just killing it on balls in play. He's chasing more, swinging at in-zone pitches less, whiffing more...

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