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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/14/25

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Talfred

2:12

I know it's only 56 PAs, but should we take the StatCast numbers for Ben Rice seriously? He looks great so far.

Ben Clemens

2:12

We should because they match what we already know about him

2:13

Don't take them exactly as gospel or anything, but yeah, this very large gentleman with a big swing hits the ball hard

comish4lif

2:13

When is swing velocity measured? It would seem to me that the swing being so short - that anything other then the immediate beginning (initial acceleration) and the end (deceleration) would be in a narrow band?

Wouldn't the system just grab the max of that reading?

Ben Clemens

2:13

It's taken at contact point

2:14

and no, there's a pretty clear relationship between longer and faster swings. The more time it has to accelerate, the more it does. Hitters have higher bat speed when they catch the ball out front

Oaktown Blues

2:14

Who do you think will have a better career: Caglianone or Kurtz?

Ben Clemens

2:14

ooooooooh

I think I lean towards Caglianone but this is really not my area of expertise

I like both players quite a bit though

Neelix

2:15

The number of GIDPs continues to drop league-wide. On a rate basis, last year's 0.66 GIDP-per-game was the lowest number since at least the mid-1940s (record keeping gets sketchy at this point). We're down even further in 2025. What's causing it? Shift? Fewer singles? Less pitching to contact?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Basically "yes"

So, proportion of plate appearances that feature a runner on first, going way down

runner on first and less than two outs, I should say

2:17

There were 2,800 fewer of those in 2024 vs. 2008, the first year I can pull Statcast for

ball in play frequency has gone down too -- more homers, walks, strikeouts

none of which can turn into double plays

2:18

Finally, even on balls in play, groundball rate is down

hitters want the ball in the air

it's just a ton of things, all working in concert

GraphsMan

2:18

what level of concern is there for Jobe’s inability to generate whiffs? I read the Michael Rosen article about being more deceptive with his delivery and I’m sure that can help, but it feels like there’s something a bit more fundamental to his problems, even if he can really pump gas and spin it.

Ben Clemens

2:19

Yeah, I think his article hits on it in a specific way - we're looking at what this guy is doing to make his stuff not translate into missed bats

but from a more general perspective, like, obviously!

the stuff can look like whatever it wants to. This guy wasn't missing bats in the minors, did we think he was going to suddenly do so in the majors?

2:20

I'm not saying he can't figure out how to turn his prodigious talents into results

2:21

But he hasn't yet

I'd expect much higher strikeout rates for a guy with this kind of arsenal. Whether it's deception or just the fastball playing down b/c of his arm slot, I need to see more

I'll be quick to believe if he has a few big strikeout games, but until then I'm out

David

2:22

How much more valuable is a 6-WAR player than a 3-WAR player? Judging by the mega contracts in the last few months for Soto and Guerrero, it seems that front offices value a player who could put up a 6-WAR season far more than double a 3-WAR player.

Ben Clemens

2:22

Yeah, quite a bit more. Teams are treating wins above average as something to target, particularly good teams. That makes sense to me - they're pretty good at generating or trading for average players

I've written about this in the last few editions of the trade value series, how doing some kind of linear accounting of wins and dollars doesn't really match team preferences anymore

2:23

stars have value in excess of just adding up the WAR because WAR isn't made to account for the fact that concentrating a ton of value into one spot is good

There are only so many at-bats to hand out, the high-rate guys make your ceiling higher, give them the big deals

Kurtz

2:23

I'm basically Barry Bonds in the minors right now. IDK how you could pick Jac over me.

Ben Clemens

2:24

If the question was which player would be better for a 14-game 2025 minor league sample, and only games that have already been played would count, well, I'd pick you

Damion

2:24

Why is the natural progression of injury news for pitchers always as follows?.....1. Pitcher X being evaluated for elbow discomfort. 2. Only inflammation/tendonitis found, Pitcher X optimistic about missing the minimum. 3. Pitcher X out for the season, after seeking second opinion. Needs elbow reconstruction.......this happened exactly this way with Eury Perez, then Kyle Bradish, then Cole, now Steele. Is it just because better imaging was done? Why rush to proclaim optimism publicly, only to do a 180?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Great question and I don't have a good answer for you

ethan

2:25

a 6 war regressing athletically might turn them into an overpaid 3 war player, whereas a 3 war player regressing a similar amount becomes a fringe mlber or non-rosterable

Ben Clemens

2:25

Also true

Bill

2:25

Keibert Ruiz's underlying metrics are horrible, with poor exit velocity and even worse bat speed. So how much of his hot start is actually valid? Is it possible to be a good hitter with those poor metrics?

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