JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/17/23

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JG6

2:10

I was watching Jordan Walker and started wondering what’s the skill that gives the best chance for real MVP upside for a young or developing player? Stantonesque power especially backed by elite EVs seems like it would be high on the list.

Ben Clemens

2:10

Yeah, I'd pick power first and then hit tool second

2:11

The thing about having a great, Altuve-esque hit tool is that you don't need to develop THAT much power to have the power play if you make your best contact frequently

2:11

Overlooked preseason Cardinals strategy for winning the NL Central: Do nothing beyond praying to the baseball gods for a major injury to Woodruff (or Burnes). Look children, it's another St. Louie miracle!

Ben Clemens

2:11

That was always the big reason to be skeptical of the Brewres

they built a team that had no depth at all but that looked equal to the Cardinals on paper, meanwhile the Cardinals have 37 starting outfielders who are all the same

2:12

If they stay healthy, that seems great, what an efficient use of resources to not have a top prospect like Dylan Carlson on the bench. If someone gets hurt, well, gg

Oaktown Blues

2:12

So far Esteury Ruiz looks like a hit, right? The EVs are still not great, but they're better than last year's cup of coffee, and the plate discipline is legit

Ben Clemens

2:12

Yeah! Feeling good

2:13

the power might not be real but the strikeout avoidance is and he's as fast as advertised

2:13

I mean, the Cardinals have 0 depth in the rotation. Just opposite problems.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I'd argue that the Cardinals have no top end of the rotation

they have a ton of blah number 5 starters

like, what happens if a cards pitcher gets injured? presumably the team looks exactly the same

Chip

2:13

Gerritt Cole has to be the most valuable pitcher in the game, right? Between his stuff, control, and taking the mound every 5th day the guy is just consistently way above average. I mean, DeGrom is good, but there's always the worry he's going to be on the shelf.

Ben Clemens

2:13

It's him or Corbin Burnes for me

2:14

And yeah, most valuable, not best, agreed

Durability matters

Obviously you could mention Sandy in this discussion too, but let's give him a year to repeat himself before we decide he's Cole-esque

Gila Monster

2:14

I was listening to your predictions draft on EW the other day and I have my BOLD prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and wins the NL MVP.

Ben Clemens

2:14

Now that is bold

Chip

2:15

Giancarlo Stanton has been injured 40% of the time since 2019. That's it. That's the comment.

Ben Clemens

2:15

Yeah, it's not great

2:15

dylan cease has looked really messy with his command so far, but his numbers are pretty much okay. are you worried about him?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I'm not

2:15

DJ LeMahieu has always looked ungainly and awkward (he is so much taller than it seems) but he somehow makes it work when he's not hurt. He's like Reggie Miller, I'd never teach someone to do it that way but it works.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Yeah, he's not Hunter Pence, but I feel similarly about him

This is not how you'd teach it, and also it works

Mike Truk

2:16

With starter pitch counts being so heavily managed, much value is there in taking long ABs compared to short ones, after controlling for actual outcomes like BB%, K%, etc? The way I think about it, every extra pitch a starter has to make increases the likelihood that you get to see that third- or fourth-best bullpen option that the opposing manager was hoping they wouldn't have to use that day. Has this ever been studied systematically?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I haven't seen it studied systematically, but I could see it against good starters. Against the back half of the rotation, the relievers are probably better anyway

limron

2:17

Are we getting too excited about Taj Bradley and his initial Stuff+ numbers? Or is top 20 pitcher a >40% outcome?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Definitely getting too excited

Volume matters a lot to be a top 20 pitcher in fantasy (which is what I'm assuming is the question here)

He looked awesome, don't get me wrong

Crosby

2:17

How long can the Cubs justify keeping Mervis down? He's hitting AAA better than last year, walking more, and striking out less. Meanwhile Hosmer is hitting the ball straight downwards and he has been better than Mancini.

Ben Clemens

2:17

I don't get it

Chip

2:18

I know you're specialty isn't necessarily fantasy but I got a decision to make today - keeper league with no bench. Suzuki is back so I need to drop one of: De La Cruz (1.50), Cooper (1.00), Blackmon (4.50), Outman (10.00), Vargas (4.50)

Ben Clemens

2:18

Oof I think I'd drop Cooper, Blackmon is just gonna keep getting PT in Coors

Pedro

2:18

Ben, more confidence in Brad Keller against TX or Tyler Anderson against KC this week? Thanks in advance

Ben Clemens

2:18

Tyler Anderson by a mile

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