JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/19/21

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Hot Take

2:39

Hottest early season take you don't believe in?

Ben Clemens

2:40

Something something the Mariners have it this year

2:41

Or, alternately, the Yankees' cold start dooms them

Guest

2:41

What is the forecasted service time manipulation date of I think 172 days?

Ben Clemens

2:42

We are actually past it already. The end of the regular season is scheduled for October 3rd

Which means the cutoff date would be April 14

Estevão

2:42

baseball is such a volume business that one of the worst organizations robbed an ace (German Marquez) from one of the best in terms of front office. Imagine the Jets getting their franchise QB or something like that from NE or BAL

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah, baseball prospects just aren't the same

zurzles

2:42

This has probably been brought up before, but the era of Suarez-the-shortstop and increasing TTO warrants it - why don't fWAR positional adjustment values ever change with the times? rWAR has always done it (possibly not enough at this point). If shortstops are getting like 20% fewer fielding opportunities than a decade ago, and teams themselves care much less about putting good fielders there than they did a decade ago, why is playing at SS worth the same fWAR as it was a decade ago?

Ben Clemens

2:43

This is a really interesting question, and one we've discussed internally from time to time

It might be worth doing another dive to see about it. I'm generally the layman bothering the smart statistics people on these, but I have fun playing devil's advocate in the discussions at least

Greg

2:43

Pirates are preaching patience with their literal black holes in CF (Fowler 38 OPS+ and Alford -5) and backup C (Perez -19 OPS+). At what point do they make some roster moves/acquisitions to address this?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Honest answer? They don't actually care

2:44

Or well

They do care!

That's really unfair of me, I take it back

But they don't care enough to sacrifice future value to patch the hoe

hole*

2:45

I think they'll be willing to cycle through semi-prospects, waiver wire claims, things like that

They're not gonna spend real money or real prospects to fix it, though

Cynthia

2:45

With the runner on 2nd rule for extra innings, is there any consideration of how it affects certain relief pitcher's ERA?

Ben Clemens

2:45

They're unearned runs, so probably not

Maybe their RA/9 WAR or something, though

2:45

Is wRC+ less accurate this early in the season? Particularly the park factors adjustment? Just looking at the Nats cause that's who I follow - they're getting dinged for playing in a hitter's park, but Nats Park plays much larger in April weather. And their away games have all been in pitcher's parks. I'm curious because it totally changes how we should look at the Nats offense so far.

Ben Clemens

2:46

Yeah, that's definitely a thing. Our park factors are season-long and there are several parks that play differently in spring -- Nats are one but Wrigley is the canonical example

The park factors are multi-year numbers, so they won't be overly affected by weird games or anything like that, but if a place plays differently by month, that will certainly not be captured

Gleyber Torres

2:46

Should we be worried about me? Should I be shipped off for a package of Ty France and a back end pitcher with upside?

Ben Clemens

2:47

In fantasy? I'm a big believer in Ty France, and I think he provides really fantasy-friendly production, so I'd at least think about it depending on the back end starter

In real life? No way

2:48

He has 60 pa this year, only 160 last year, and he's a really above average hitter for his career

Not THAT strike

2:48

Is there a set date when the MLBPA and the owners officially begin CBA negotiations? If not, shouldn't they start asap to avoid a(n inevitable) work stoppage in '22? At least talk on a weekly basis.

Ben Clemens

2:48

Oh, the negotiations are ongoing

If the Richard Fitts

2:49

As a Royals fan, trust me, we will implode at some point. Our pitching is getting by with smoke and mirrors.

Ben Clemens

2:51

Hey, I picked Royals pitching as a breakout this year, take it back!

That said, Yeah I dunno, I certainly didn't expect Junis to be their best pitcher so far

This is not how I would have guessed things would be going

Gil

2:52

Yerman Mercedes made an appearance today down 6 with 6 offensive outs left for the White Sox. Is this good or bad strategy? I'm all for position players pitching but this seems like too slim a lead to wave the white flag given how potent the White Sox offense can be.

Ben Clemens

2:53

Depends what it would cost them, but 6 runs in two innings just to get to a tie is a LOT

2:54

Like, maybe you'd prefer it to be 8 runs? But if they're a normal offense, the away team comes back in that situation 0.8% of the time

If they're at like 3%, it's SUCh a small edge

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