JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/20/26

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. Let's get to talkin'

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:00

PSA: If you want to go back to the native Jotcast links instead of the embedded version because it's too compressed on mobile, click the square icon on the right end of the row with your user name.

Ben Clemens

2:01

neat! Not quite sure what this means but better visibility for Jotcast is nice

sandwiches

2:01

There was this great Sullivan article back in 2018 about how even after 81 games the projections still did better at predicting the 2nd half than either of season to date or pythag results to that point. Given the Brewers outlier propensity to beat the projections, is there a point where the inverse might be true for them? I'd imagine 21 games is more than a little early, but as of now they are at 83.1 wins via the default projections versus 92.6 wins using season to date mode.

Ben Clemens

2:01

that's because season to date mode is mostly using last year's stats. Like, they're not even that good this year! 10th in baseruns

2:02

We've done many versions of that article over the years, the conclusions basically don't change

soryr, I should say, they have not been very good so far this year. It's fairly clera that looing at their 12-9 Pythag, BaseRuns, and actual record means not THAT much, you kno?

2:03

that's not bad or anything. But looking at that and going 'well they're beating the model' is not where my head goes. My head goes to 'it's April 20'

Oblivious M's Fan

2:03

Happy Patriots Day! I actually had no idea the Red Sox played a early game every Patriots Day until this morning when I turned on MLB Network at work.

Anyway, I wanted to talk quickly about Kodai Senga. His K/9 is fantastic but walks and HR's are up, which leads to an xFIP... lower then his 2025 FIP? I think their is reason to still believe in him as long as the BABIP goes down, but with the way the Mets are going I wonder if a trade will occur sooner rather then later.

Ben Clemens

2:04

yeah, I learned about it from Bostonian friends and I think it's pretty cool. The marathon being on that day, the cool city connect marathon jerseys, great cohesion and overall cool

2:05

As for Senga: yeah, the walks are a big problem. I agree that he doesn't have a huge home run problem in general, but he does have a big walks problem, and it hasn't gotten better in three years so I do think that when he's allowing homers, it's gonna be ugly. the bases are just always juiced

Robbie314

2:05

The Cubs and Brewers are in last place in the NL Central with a record of 12-9. Is this unprecedented? What's the best last place team in MLB history (measured by W-L differential, I'm not interested in five 1-0 teams)?

Ben Clemens

2:05

sounds like a question that someone else should ask the mailbag, and be sure to mention that Ben doesn't have to answer this one, because I am interested but absolutely don't feel like doing the research

2:06

You'd need the standings for every day in history, which, well

they exist! I do not envy the person whose task it is to design that query

Jays development

2:06

How good is the Jays' development team in helping a player like Lenyn Sosa become more than what he was with the White Sox?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I mean.... if I told you I knew, I'd be lying. If they told you they know, they're lying. I don't have a lot of confidence that anyone can trade for a random utility guy and make him elite, though. If that were the case, the Jays would be winning every world series, you know? I think Sosa is what he is, and the Jays mainly just needed warm bodies

Big Buckston

2:07

Mick Abel to the IL with ominous "right elbow inflammation"... Absolutely gutted for him after 13 scoreless innings in his last two starts, it looked like he was starting to put it together.

Ben Clemens

2:08

Huge bummer. Couldn't agree more

The Twins have been a really fun story this year. They have played a lot of very fun games and are doing well. Hard to argue with that

alex

2:08

How do you evaluate sequencing? Seems like many gains to be had by clubs there.

Ben Clemens

2:08

I actually have a foolproof plan for evaluating sequencing. I bet you every researcher you read has done a similar version of it.

2:09

1. Spend dozens of hours on your pet sequencing model
2.It shows a result!
3.Spend forever normalizing that result b/c it's so easy to have contaminating factors when you evaluate sequencing
4.after normalization, there's no remaining effect
5.Spend dozens more hours on your new pet sequencing model

2:10

"Seems like many gains to be had by clubs tehre" is definitely true. And yet over a very long period of all of these teams employing armies of PhD's, we haven't really found much that I can see. Tells you something about how hard this problem is

2:10

Hi Ben, thanks for taking the time to chat. What's wrong with the Royals' offense?

Ben Clemens

2:11

It has the misfortune of employing a number of hitters who aren't that great. Plus a few of their stars are slumping at once

But yeah, it's been a very cold start for them. Maybe some of that is the weather, but a lto of it is that everyone is hitting poorly. The Royals, Mets, and Giants are last in MLB in scoring and I think that the Royals and Giants are basically getting cover because the Mets are so obviously awful at the moment

Crochet

2:12

Three of Garrett Crochet's five outings have been horrific. Is that a trend or still a small sample size? Should I panic or be patient?

Ben Clemens

2:12

small sample size for me, unless he says he's hurt or fatigued

and then, maximum alarm

Reds Enjoyer

2:13

How many innings does it take for bullpen stats to stabilize/normalize? In other words, at what point can good bullpen performance so far truly be predictive of good bullpen performance moving forward?

Ben Clemens

2:13

probably about 6 seasons

no, I dunno the exact answer but it's forever

2:14

sounds like a fruitful topic to look into, but 'stabilize' for a gropu of relievers? always assume the answer is 'never'

Nate

2:14

Cole Ragans has pitched in 5 games and has not really looked like himself. I'm not ready to call him cooked after 5 starts, but his command is suffering pretty significantly

Ben Clemens

2:16

Hsi command and stuff both look bad

I'm definitely concerned. Also his arm angle has dropped huge

I think that generally speaking, you can be less worried about early-season command misfires because they are much less stable intra-year

Stephen Vogt

2:17

My team’s offense, both results and underlying metrics, isn’t nearly as bad as most thought it would be.

Ben Clemens

2:18

So I was listening to the Cardinals announcers last week because I am a masochist, basically. They were praising the Guardians offense as one of the best in baseball in recent yers

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