JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/20/26

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Sal's Mom

2:31

Should Ke'Bryan Hayes start selling out to pull fly balls? He makes great contact and hit the ball harder than average( at least this year) but somehow seems to always hit it at someone.

Ben Clemens

2:32

'should Ke'Bryan Hayes start trying to pull the ball in the air' is one of those great questions in life. I've been saying this for about five years, ever since we ranked him aggressively in the first trade value series that I worked on

You look at his profile and go 'oh man, if this guy could elevate and pull, he'd be amazing. how does he hit the ball so hard and play such great defense??'

and I'm sure he knows that, too, right? It's not like he lives in a vacuum. But it just seems like he cannot. Or whatever he's done to try to do it hasn't worked yet, at least

2:33

I concur with you. And I really can't tell you why it hasn't happened, but it hasn't happened

Nate

2:33

re: the Royals, at least Jac seems to be getting his feet underneath him a little, he's finally translating that insane bat speed into a 91st percentile barrel rate

Ben Clemens

2:34

Yeah. I'm not saying they won't pull it out, to be clear. One would expect Jac to turn into a reasonable major league hitter, he has the pedigree and tools. I'd say that the early returns on Carter Jansen are great too

Jensen*, whoops, I've made that mistake a lot this year for no good reason

2:35

But honestly, the Royals lineup always projected to have some weak points. We just thought that Witt, Garcia, Salvy, and Vinnie would make up for it

and so far those guys have hit a combined not-so-great, hence the bad results

TKDC

2:36

Assuming they both pitch a full season, who has a better ERA at the end of the season: Garrett Crochet or Bryce Elder?

Ben Clemens

2:37

let's just do the lazy way and add up the FG projections. Elder projects to end the year with a 3.72, Crochet with a 3.69. So it's basically bang on even

Meg Backwards is Gem

2:38

Who would be the biggest riser and faller if there was a redraft of the team fun draft today? I'm biased the Nationals scoring a billion runs a game while having the worst pitching in the league is objectively a fun outcome for a bad team

Ben Clemens

2:38

I'd put the Nats high and the Giants v low. They've been grim to watch so far. No one's having fun

Sonny

2:38

It’s Patriots Day! Aka your annual reminder that baseball players sleep until noon every day.

Dilemma

2:38

Jeremiah Jackson is playing great second base for the O's. Is he talented enough to become a super-utility guy when Holliday returns?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Against my pre-season expectation, I'll say yet

yes*

2:39

I've been really impressed by him, especially his defense. I was worried that he'd be one of those 'utility' guys who is actually jsut below average everywhere, and he definitely has not been

DJ Tofu

2:39

Should we worry about Devers yet?

Ben Clemens

2:40

yeah, or at least wonder what the heck is going on this year. Last year he looked basically like Rafael Devers. This year his pliate discipline is fine but he's just not hitting the ball in the air? And that's basically his game so I think that is extra-worrisome. It's not like he's just getting unlucky in a bunch of peripheral stuff; he's not putting the ball in places where it can do damage

War2D2

2:41

Any predictions on where Giolito eventually signs? At this point the rust has to be a serious issue, right? I just can’t imagine he’d be a league-avg arm until June, if ever.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I think he might just sit out the year. It's gotten so late, I agree with you that this is gonna be hard

Reds Enjoyer

2:41

Re: NL Central, my preliminary research yesterday tells me the 2005 Nats are the best last place team ever at 81-81. The Braves won that division with 90 wins!

Bucco brewskis

2:41

How is Isaac Mattson so effective? He's a one trick pony with a seemingly average trick. Is his fastball shape elite? Is it location sequencing? How are hitters not crushing his fastball every at bat?

Ben Clemens

2:41

yeah.... because anything can happen in small samples in baseball

2:42

This is not gonna keep up, haha. I watch these appearances and go yeeeeeeeeeesh

he's allowing a 35% LD rate, that's really something

2:43

like, batters ARE crushing his fastball. They're tattooing the heck out of it. and also he doesn't strike anyone out, and he walks too many. The 90% LOB rate and 0% HR/FB won't hold up forever, and when you have a 7% K-BB, it's just not going to last

Oaktown Blues

2:43

Nick Kurtz is gonna be fine right? .397 xwOBA but 64% contact rate and 33.7% K rate

Ben Clemens

2:43

yeah gonna be fine imo

Alex

2:44

Hey Mike Francesa, will the go 0-140 the rest of the year? I'll hang up and listen.

Ben Clemens

2:44

yes